Sophia Besch, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, delve into Russia's undersea information warfare. They discuss recent threats to vital undersea infrastructure and the challenges in attributing sabotage to specific actors. The conversation highlights hybrid warfare's impact on European security and the significance of international cooperation to defend NATO countries. They also explore the complexities of communicating these threats to the public without inciting panic.
The increasing aggression from Russia, exemplified by the Yantar spy vessel incident, emphasizes the urgent need for NATO to protect undersea infrastructure.
Hybrid warfare tactics, including sabotage and cyber attacks on critical undersea cables, complicate efforts to respond effectively to perceived threats from Russia.
Deep dives
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Russian Aggression in Maritime Operations
The discussion highlights the presence of the Russian spy vessel Yantar in British waters, showcasing a broader trend of maritime incidents that indicate increasing Russian aggression. The Royal Navy took measures to counter this by surfacing a submarine nearby, conveying a strong message to deter further incursions. NATO's response includes launching a patrol program in the Baltic Sea to address threats to undersea infrastructure, which has recently encountered sabotage attempts. These actions signify a strategic response to Russia's alleged hybrid warfare tactics against Western allies.
The Critical Role of Undersea Cables
Undersea cables are fundamental to global internet connectivity, with more than 95% of international data traffic relying on them, amounting to trillions of dollars in daily transactions. Increased awareness of their importance came after incidents like the Nord Stream pipeline explosion, which heightened concerns about vulnerabilities to sabotage. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter emphasizes the strategic significance of these cables, marking them as a potential target for disruptive Russian actions in any future conflict. This recognition underscores the necessity for enhanced protection and vigilance regarding undersea infrastructure.
Challenges of Hybrid Warfare Attribution
Hybrid warfare encompasses a wide spectrum of hostile activities that are not strictly military, complicating attribution and response efforts. The ambiguity surrounding attacks, such as those on undersea cables, often leaves Western authorities with insufficient evidence to directly link actions to Russian intentions. This uncertainty creates challenges in developing effective retaliation strategies, as demonstrated by recent incidents in the Baltic region. As nations grapple with these issues, there is a pressing need for improved surveillance, deterrence, and information-sharing among allies to enhance their collective security posture.
When a British submarine surfaced in the North Sea to warn off a Russian spy vessel sailing just 45 miles from the British mainland, a series of shadowy maritime sabotage incidents burst onto the front pages and into public consciousness.
In the past year undersea cables vital to European digital infrastructure have been targeted for damage - most notably in the Baltic Sea. With blame difficult to pinpoint, suspicion has fallen on Russia, which Western security services have warned is engaged in ‘hybrid warfare’ - utilising sabotage, cyber attacks and other non-military hostile acts - in a bid to weaken NATO countries and destabilise Western democracies.
In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler discusses the threat to European infrastructure from undersea sabotage with Sophia Besch, a senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And to assess the wider threat from potential hybrid warfare operations we hear from Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform.
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Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.