Azeem Azhar's Exponential View Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
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Jan 21, 2026 
Peter McCrory, Head of Economics at Anthropic and lead author of their Economic Index report, discusses AI's current impact on productivity and labor. He highlights distinct usage patterns of Claude, emphasizing the need for businesses to extract tacit knowledge to unlock AI's full potential. McCrory warns of risks for junior workers as automation changes job skill dynamics while estimating that AI could boost productivity growth by 1.0-1.8% over the next decade. They also explore the complexities of implementing AI and the importance of developing cognitive endurance alongside technology.
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Two Distinct Usage Patterns
- Chat and API use show two distinct economic stories: chat drives augmentation while API drives automation.
- Adoption paths differ because businesses embed AI into workflows differently, like electricity becoming invisible infrastructure.
Context Is The Key Bottleneck
- Complex automation needs far more contextual information from businesses to succeed.
- Without surfacing tacit knowledge, capable models will underdeliver when embedded into workflows.
Extract Tacit Knowledge First
- Elicit and document tacit knowledge from employees before automating workflows.
- Store that knowledge in accessible formats so models can use it effectively in production.
