Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years.
Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic.
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In this episode, Peter McCrory, Head of Economics at Anthropic, unpacks the company's new Economic Index report. His team analysed millions of real Claude conversations to map exactly where AI is augmenting human work today and where it isn't. We explore the striking divergence between API and chat usage, why businesses need to extract tacit knowledge to unlock AI's potential, the "hollow ladder" risk for junior workers, and Anthropic's estimate that AI could add 1.0-1.8% to annual productivity growth over the next decade.
Skip to the best parts:
(00:00) Anthropic's Economic Index report
(01:20) Claude's two distinct usage patterns
(06:22) Examining AI's impact on the labor market
(09:20) Where most businesses think too small
(12:03) Why extracting tacit knowledge is so important
(20:33) How do we create the next generation of experts?
(23:22) Why people need to develop cognitive endurance
(29:55) Long-term vs. short-term productivity
(35:56) The future of human knowledge
(37:46) Could AI's greatest impact go unmeasured?
(41:55) How task bottlenecks have moved
(46:09) Implementation resembles a staircase - not a curve
(50:47) "Capability doesn't instantly deliver adoption"
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Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
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