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AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast
23 - Mechanistic Anomaly Detection with Mark Xu
Jul 27, 2023
02:05:52
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Quick takeaways
- Detecting anomalies in mechanisms ensures system behavior alignment with intentions.
- Analyzing sensor correlations helps uncover discrepancies in system functioning.
- Exploring mechanistic anomalies in action outcomes flags deviations from standard operations.
- Heuristic estimation and mechanisms are vital in maintaining data accuracy and integrity.
- Formalizing heuristic arguments in computational objects presents challenges for compact forms and applications.
Deep dives
Detect Anomalies in Mechanisms Driving Actions
Detecting anomalies in the mechanisms driving actions is crucial in ensuring that the system behaves as intended. By focusing on the specific mechanisms behind the outcomes of actions, deviations from expected behavior can be identified. This involves looking at how actions are taken and the reasons behind these actions, distinguishing between normal mechanisms and abnormal manipulations.
Differentiating Mechanistic Explanations for Sensor Readings
Distinguishing between mechanistic explanations for sensor readings helps in understanding the rationale behind the system's behavior. By evaluating whether sensor outputs align with the expected mechanisms derived from training, anomalies can be detected. This approach involves dissecting the causal relationships between actions, sensor inputs, and intended outcomes.
Analyzing Sensor Correlations for Unusual Patterns
Analyzing sensor correlations for unusual patterns aids in uncovering discrepancies in the system's functioning. By examining how sensors interact and whether such interactions deviate from expected norms, abnormal behaviors can be pinpointed. This analysis involves scrutinizing the underlying mechanisms shaping sensor data and the implications on system performance.
Exploring Mechanistic Anomalies in Action Outcomes
Exploring mechanistic anomalies in action outcomes sheds light on discrepancies between intended actions and observed results. By delving into the mechanisms governing action consequences, deviations from standard operation can be flagged. This investigation entails scrutinizing how actions lead to specific outcomes and whether the mechanisms driving these actions align with predefined norms.
Heuristic Estimation and Mechanisms in Case of Correlated Sensors
When dealing with the challenge of determining the cleanliness of a data set, the podcast delves into the concept of heuristic estimation and mechanisms, particularly in scenarios where sensors may be correlated. It discusses the complexity of ensuring that actions taken by different policies do not compromise the integrity of the data set. By exploring the differences between policies that act and predictors that predict, the episode highlights the need to detect anomalies in predictions to maintain data accuracy, using examples such as lever positions affecting sensors' activations.
Challenges in Presumption of Independence in Mechanistic Anomaly Detection
In the context of formalizing the presumption of independence, the podcast presents challenges in applying heuristic arguments beyond number theory. It discusses instances where heuristic arguments may not yield the expected results or may require extensive computations to confirm phenomena. The episode explores the limitations of heuristic arguments in cases like Mazelas theorem for n equals three solutions and considers scenarios where maximum entropy approaches may fall short in capturing complex correlations.
Integration of Maximum Entropy and Heuristic Estimation for Anomaly Detection
The podcast addresses the potential of maximum entropy distributions in anomaly detection by integrating them with heuristic estimation. It evaluates scenarios where maximum entropy alone may not provide optimal solutions, such as cases involving circuit computations or correlated variables. By combining the strengths of heuristic estimation and maximum entropy principles, the episode suggests a comprehensive approach to address anomalies and complex correlations in data analysis.
Maximum Entropy Distribution and Induced Correlation between Wires
When aiming for a maximum entropy distribution over all wires, this may lead to artificial correlation between wires. For instance, adding an AND gate to a circuit can induce correlation between input wires A and B, affecting their probabilities. Maximum entropy distributions can have implications on how intermediate computations within a circuit influence the probabilities of input wires, demonstrating a complex interplay.
Heuristic Arguments and Challenges in Mechanistic Anomaly Detection
Formalizing heuristic arguments for computational objects like neural nets poses challenges in finding compact, proof-like forms. Despite complexities in formalization, usefulness and applications of heuristic arguments remain promising. Enhancements in methods like reductant propagation for heuristic estimations and on optimal conditions for mechanism distinction indicate progress despite ongoing experimental and theoretical endeavors.
Is there some way we can detect bad behaviour in our AI system without having to know exactly what it looks like? In this episode, I speak with Mark Xu about mechanistic anomaly detection: a research direction based on the idea of detecting strange things happening in neural networks, in the hope that that will alert us of potential treacherous turns. We both talk about the core problems of relating these mechanistic anomalies to bad behaviour, as well as the paper "Formalizing the presumption of independence", which formulates the problem of formalizing heuristic mathematical reasoning, in the hope that this will let us mathematically define "mechanistic anomalies".
Patreon: patreon.com/axrpodcast
Ko-fi: ko-fi.com/axrpodcast
Episode art by Hamish Doodles: hamishdoodles.com/
Topics we discuss, and timestamps:
- 0:00:38 - Mechanistic anomaly detection
- 0:09:28 - Are all bad things mechanistic anomalies, and vice versa?
- 0:18:12 - Are responses to novel situations mechanistic anomalies?
- 0:39:19 - Formalizing "for the normal reason, for any reason"
- 1:05:22 - How useful is mechanistic anomaly detection?
- 1:12:38 - Formalizing the Presumption of Independence
- 1:20:05 - Heuristic arguments in physics
- 1:27:48 - Difficult domains for heuristic arguments
- 1:33:37 - Why not maximum entropy?
- 1:44:39 - Adversarial robustness for heuristic arguments
- 1:54:05 - Other approaches to defining mechanisms
- 1:57:20 - The research plan: progress and next steps
- 2:04:13 - Following ARC's research
The transcript: axrp.net/episode/2023/07/24/episode-23-mechanistic-anomaly-detection-mark-xu.html
ARC links:
- Website: alignment.org
- Theory blog: alignment.org/blog
- Hiring page: alignment.org/hiring
Research we discuss:
- Formalizing the presumption of independence: arxiv.org/abs/2211.06738
- Eliciting Latent Knowledge (aka ELK): alignmentforum.org/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent-knowledge
- Mechanistic Anomaly Detection and ELK: alignmentforum.org/posts/vwt3wKXWaCvqZyF74/mechanistic-anomaly-detection-and-elk
- Can we efficiently explain model behaviours? alignmentforum.org/posts/dQvxMZkfgqGitWdkb/can-we-efficiently-explain-model-behaviors
- Can we efficiently distinguish different mechanisms? alignmentforum.org/posts/JLyWP2Y9LAruR2gi9/can-we-efficiently-distinguish-different-mechanisms
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