Logan Mohtashami: After the election, does the Fed finally care about housing?
Nov 11, 2024
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Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst known for his deep insights into the mortgage market, joins to discuss the Fed's recent remarks and their potential impact on mortgage rates. He highlights how the election might influence housing demand, stressing the need for lower rates to stimulate the market. The conversation dives into bond yield fluctuations and the relationship between economic indicators and housing trends. Logan also outlines how adapting economic models and keeping an eye on data can guide future forecasts in this ever-changing landscape.
Jerome Powell's acknowledgment of the weak housing market signifies the Fed's intent to implement future rate cuts and support housing demand.
Stabilization of mortgage rates near 6% suggests improving pricing conditions, which could invigorate demand and strengthen the overall housing market.
Deep dives
Mortgage Rate Insights
Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-year yield, which has shown some stabilization despite recent fluctuations. The latest data indicates that mortgage rates are likely to head toward 6%, which could improve demand in the housing market. A comparison to last year's mortgage spreads reveals that rates are significantly lower this year, hinting at better pricing conditions for consumers. The potential for lower rates, alongside increased demand, suggests the market may be finding a firmer bottom, a critical factor for future housing activity.
Federal Reserve's Strategy
The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, but the commentary surrounding the decision generated notable discussion. Jerome Powell articulated that the Fed considers multiple timeframes when evaluating economic indicators, which may imply further rate cuts are on the horizon as the labor market evolves. Powell's acknowledgment of the weak housing market reflects a broader understanding of the economic layers affecting housing demand and construction. This dual approach by the Fed indicates a commitment to facilitating a healthier housing market while remaining mindful of inflation.
Housing Market Dynamics
The housing market currently faces challenges, including low home sales and construction starts, suggesting a stagnation at recession-like levels. Recent interviews highlight that housing supply must increase to tackle inflation and bolster new home sales, a fundamental economic principle. Recognizing the necessity of building permits and starts is vital for maintaining a balanced housing market, especially as mortgage rates remain elevated. Moving forward, understanding the separate dynamics affecting existing versus new home sales is crucial for grasping broader market trends.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Fed meeting and where mortgage rates are headed.
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