Scaling Laws Moving the AGI Goal Posts: AI Skepticism with Sayash Kapoor
5 snips
Jul 31, 2025 
Sayash Kapoor, co-author of 'AI Snake Oil', dives deep into the skepticism surrounding AGI claims and the complexities of AI adoption. He discusses how misaligned benchmarks fail to reflect real-world skills necessary in various sectors. Kapoor highlights the transformative potential of AI and the urgent need for informed policies amidst rapid militarization and evolving workforce dynamics. He advocates for regulatory humility, emphasizing that well-intentioned laws can have unexpected consequences. A nuanced understanding of AI's capabilities and limitations is essential for shaping its future.
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Skepticism on AGI Announcements
- Skepticism is crucial when labs announce AGI due to incentives to claim breakthroughs.
- The main bottleneck is not technology, but its diffusion across society and sectors.
AGI Is a Moving Target
- AGI definitions vary widely, with many definitions already met by current tools.
- Relevant comparison is humans using AI, not unaided humans against AI.
AI Transforms Work, Not Just Replaces
- AI as a general purpose technology will transform work over decades.
- Elastic demand means AI adoption may raise demand for jobs in some industries, like software and healthcare.
