The Path Ahead For Ukraine, Three Years Into Russia's Full-Scale Invasion
Feb 25, 2025
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Anastasia Lepatina is a Ukrainian journalist at Lawfare, while David Rennie is the geopolitics editor at The Economist, and Edward Fishman teaches at Columbia University. They discuss the shifting nature of U.S.-Ukraine relations amid changing political winds, particularly under Trump. The impact of sanctions on Russia's economy is dissected, as well as Ukraine's urgent quest for security. The episode also critiques recent diplomatic meetings that excluded Ukraine, emphasizing the need for Ukrainian sovereignty and unity against ongoing threats.
The ongoing conflict has solidified Ukrainian unity and support for President Zelensky amid misinformation from former President Trump.
Concerns arise over the sidelining of Ukraine in peace negotiations and the necessity for robust security guarantees against future Russian aggression.
Deep dives
Russia's Ongoing Control and Diplomatic Meetings
Russia currently controls approximately 20% of Ukraine's territory, with significant gains in the eastern regions, and continues to hold Crimea, which it annexed illegally in 2014. Recently, high-level diplomatic meetings between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov took place without the inclusion of Ukrainian or EU representatives, highlighting a concerning trend of sidelining Ukraine in crucial discussions. This absence underscored the perception of Ukraine's lack of agency in the peace negotiation process, despite being the nation directly affected by the invasion. The interplay between economic interests expressed by U.S. officials and the push for a diplomatic resolution raises questions about the legitimacy and implications of any peace agreement reached without Ukrainian involvement.
Ukrainian Unity and Reactions to U.S. Statements
In response to recent comments from former President Trump, who labeled Ukrainian President Zelensky a dictator and falsely claimed Ukraine was responsible for the Russian invasion, reactions in Ukraine have been marked by unity against perceived misinformation. The Ukrainian government stated that it would not recognize any agreements made without their presence, indicating a clear refusal to concede to decisions made by others regarding their sovereignty. Public sentiment has rallied around Zelensky, with citizens expressing shock at Trump's remarks and solidifying support for their democratically elected leader despite previous criticisms. This demonstrates a profound shift in national sentiment as Ukraine faces ongoing conflict, rallying together in defense of their leadership and autonomy.
The Shift from Diplomatic Isolation to Military Support
Initially, the U.S. and Europe aimed to diplomatically isolate Russia and provide economic sanctions without escalating military involvement. Over the past year, there has been a realization that empowering Ukraine with advanced weaponry is critical to strengthening its bargaining position for any future negotiations. However, there is a concern that the Trump administration's mixed messages and emphasis on quick deals with Russia may undermine these efforts and reward aggression. European leaders are now actively working to bolster their military capabilities and support for Ukraine in anticipation of a protracted conflict and to ensure that any peace negotiations do not come at the expense of Ukraine's sovereignty.
The Importance of Security Guarantees for Ukraine's Future
Ukrainian leaders emphasize the necessity of security guarantees, akin to NATO's Article 5, in any foreseeable peace deal to assure protection from future aggressions. The populace is deeply skeptical of any arrangement that does not substantively address security needs, given Russia's historical violations of agreements and continued threats. Ukraine's political landscape and public opinion are shaped heavily by calls for firm guarantees that would deter further Russian incursions, aware that previous agreements have been disregarded. Any perceived compromise on security expectations is likely to be met with significant backlash among the Ukrainian populace, illustrating the critical connections between national pride, integrity, and the desire for reliable international partnerships.
It's the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And the world looks very different now than it did then.
In the three years since Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces began their assault on their neighbor, tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers have perished. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been able to hold his enemies off with the help of support from the U.S.
But now that Donald Trump is in charge, that's likely to change. The president has made it no secret that he believes Zelenskyy should try and make peace with Putin, no matter what it might cost his country. In his first month in office, Trump has taken steps to isolate the U.S. from its allies in Western Europe and NATO, putting those countries on even shakier ground as they try and contend with the possibility of continued Russian aggression.
We discuss what the future of this conflict looks like for Ukraine.