Saxo Market Call Structural crude outlook update. Also: the equity market faces bigger hurdles now.
6 snips
Sep 26, 2025 
In this discussion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo, dives into his structural bullish outlook on crude oil, emphasizing supply dynamics and OPEC concerns. He explains why oil prices are unlikely to fall below $50, highlighting global demand trends. The conversation shifts to the outlook for European natural gas as winter approaches, discussing storage and supply challenges. Hansen also touches on the performance of metals like gold and copper, and outlines potential investment ideas linked to stable oil prices.
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Structural Bullish Case For Oil
- Global oil demand growth and limited new supply point to a structural, patient bull for crude over time.
- Falling spare capacity shifts the marginal supplier power to OPEC and supports higher prices ahead.
Shale Profitability Raises Oil Floor
- US shale needs roughly $65/bbl to be profitable, raising the floor for marginal production.
- Forward curves have flattened, reducing producers' ability to hedge at higher prices and limiting near-term supply response.
OPEC Is The Remaining Shock Absorber
- OPEC (Saudi, UAE) remains the swing supplier, but raising production erodes spare capacity over time.
- Lower spare capacity increases the risk of supply shortfalls and supports higher structural oil prices.