The Circuit EP 140: NVIDIA's $300B chart, CAPEX to the MOON FOREVER!
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Nov 3, 2025 Dive into the competitive cloud computing arena as Nvidia eyes dominance amid a fragmented market. Discover the buzz around AI RAN and Nvidia's strategic moves in telecom. Explore the debate on AI compute demand and the looming capacity crunch, along with insights into custom silicon versus traditional GPUs. Get the scoop on the consolidation in the RF industry with Skyworks and Corvo. Plus, listen in on reactions to Nvidia's earnings, highlighting trends that shape the future of tech investment.
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Substrate's Moonshot Lithography Claim
- Substrate claims a cheaper, simpler lithography tool that could reach 1.5nm and below and aims to build its own fab in the U.S.
- Jay Goldberg warns commercialization, scaling, and ecosystem integration remain large unanswered challenges.
$300B Slide Triggered Market Frenzy
- Jensen's GTC slide implied roughly $300B–$500B cumulative revenue through CY26 and triggered market excitement and confusion.
- Clarifications showed the number included shipped systems and networking, not just GPU die sales, reducing some implied upside.
NVIDIA Pushes Into Telecom With AI RAN
- NVIDIA pitched "AI RAN"—using GPUs to manage radio access networks—and has deep interest in telecom despite unclear near-term payoff.
- Jay suggests part of the push targets Washington and telco lobbying rather than immediate commercial returns.