HousingWire Daily Logan Motashami on Opendoor stock skyrocketing
8 snips
Jul 22, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a leading housing market analyst, joins to dissect the recent surge in Opendoor's stock, attributing it to market speculation rather than concrete housing trends. He evaluates builder confidence amid rising mortgage rates, explaining how these rates impact single-family permits. The discussion dives into mortgage spreads, likening their interplay with yields to a 'slow dance.' Mohtashami also addresses the Federal Reserve's political pressures, shedding light on its effect on market stability and housing sales trends.
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Opendoor Stock Surge Is Market Noise
- Opendoor stock's surge is driven by Wall Street trading and Reddit hype, not housing market fundamentals.
- Builder stocks correlate more directly with mortgage rates and 10-year yields than with Opendoor's volatile stock price.
Mortgage Spreads Ease Builder Struggles
- Builder confidence and permits remain low despite small improvements, hindered by high mortgage rates.
- Mortgage spreads improving allow near 6% mortgage rates without a sub-4% 10-year yield, easing builder challenges.
Mortgage Spreads Historical Context
- Mortgage spreads between 10-year yields and 30-year mortgages have historically ranged between 1.6% and 1.8%.
- Spreads widened under market stress in 2022-23 but have since improved, lowering mortgage rates from what they otherwise would be.