Mike Simonsen on home price trends and inventory across the country
Jul 19, 2024
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Mike Simonsen, founder of Altos Research, discusses home price trends, inventory analysis across different states, and national trends. He explores the impact of mortgage rates on the housing market, advantages of locking in low rates, and unrealistic expectations in the market.
Ultra-cheap mortgages stimulate the economy, despite increasing rates.
Rising mortgage rates drive record-high debt-to-income ratios, potentially leading to a market correction.
Deep dives
Mortgage Trends: Rates and Borrower Behavior
Around 56-57% of US mortgage holders have mortgages under 4%, with another 18% under 5%. Despite increasing rates, many continue to have ultra-cheap mortgages, impacting loan payment behavior. The cheap rates have incentivized borrowers to hold onto mortgages, stimulating the economy over the years.
Debt-to-Income Ratio: New Mortgages and Risk
The debt-to-income ratio for new mortgages is currently at record highs due to rising mortgage rates and home prices. Mortgage rates, not weaker borrowers, are driving this increase, unlike the situation in 2006. While concerns arise about loan risk, a potential correction may occur with falling rates.
Home Inventory and Pricing Trends
Nationwide, inventory has grown, with about 40% of homes experiencing price cuts. This rise indicates weaker demand in the market but is expected to follow a seasonal pattern. Median home prices have remained stable, with a moderate 3% increase in pending sales prices compared to last year.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research, about the latest data on homebuyers, housing inventory and home prices.
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