Ep. 226: Gary Gerstle on Kamala Impact, Trump Policies and Political Realignments
Jul 26, 2024
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Gary Gerstle, a renowned historian and author, dives into the dramatic shifts in American politics. He discusses Biden's possible withdrawal and what it means for Kamala Harris's candidacy, drawing parallels to the 1968 election. Gerstle also analyzes Trump's influence on the GOP and emerging factions within the party. The conversation explores changing political alignments, the threat of a second Trump term, and strategies for the Democrats to secure victory in 2024. Insightful and thought-provoking, his observations illuminate the current political landscape.
The withdrawal of President Biden and endorsement of Kamala Harris marks a significant realignment in the Democratic Party, echoing the turbulent political climate of 1968.
Kamala Harris's choice of vice-presidential running mate will be crucial in shaping her campaign strategy and addressing key voter demographics in battleground states.
Deep dives
Biden's Withdrawal and Kamala Harris's Rise
President Biden has withdrawn from the race for the 2024 presidential election, endorsing Kamala Harris as his successor. This decision follows concerns about his performance in a recent debate, which was perceived as poor and raised questions about his capacity to serve another term. As a result, the Democratic Party now faces the challenge of deciding whether to hold a mini-primary or to consolidate support around Harris, who has emerged as the frontrunner following significant endorsements. The uncertainty surrounding her campaign, particularly given her previous struggles in the 2020 primaries, raises questions about her ability to face potential opponents and navigate the ongoing political landscape.
Historical Context of Kamala Harris's Candidacy
The current political climate bears similarities to the tumultuous 1968 election, when President Lyndon Johnson withdrew from the race amid mounting pressures. In this context, the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago could also see significant protests, particularly regarding issues related to Palestine and Israel. The challenges facing Harris in a convention setting are highlighted by the possibility of her stumbling before or during the event, leading to potential delegate reconsiderations. This historical parallel serves to underscore the complexity of her nomination process and the pressures that will be placed on her as a candidate.
The Importance of the Vice Presidential Pick
Kamala Harris's choice for a vice-presidential running mate is crucial as it may help her communicate with critical segments of the electorate. Candidates from key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona are being discussed, suggesting a strategy to consolidate support in these crucial areas. The selection will need to consider not just electoral strategy, but also how it reflects on Harris's identity as a woman of color and responds to concerns from various demographics. Given the evolving political landscape, Harris's decision will play a significant role in shaping her campaign's message and efficacy.
Potential Challenges for the Democratic Party
Despite the challenges facing the Democratic Party, including Kamala Harris's previous primary performance, there is still optimism about their electoral prospects. Her candidacy is expected to energize independent voters and moderate Republicans disillusioned with Trump. Abortion rights and women's reproductive freedoms are likely to be significant issues that Harris could leverage against the Republican ticket, potentially positioning her campaign favorably. However, for Democrats to win in 2024, they will need to navigate the electoral college landscape wisely and ensure that Harris embodies a moderate persona that resonates with a broad spectrum of voters.
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast covers switching Presidential nominees – parallels to 1968, Kamala’s VP pick, whether Kamala will be a continuity candidate or something different, and much more.