Bank of Canada 'coin toss' lands with a hold amid global economic uncertainty

The Bank of Canada announced that it held its policy interest rate steady at 2.75% — a pause after seven consecutive cuts — as uncertainty about tariffs and the economy continues to cloud the global outlook. Experts were split on whether the central bank would deliver a cut or a hold. 

Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault returns to break down the announcement, provide some context around why the Bank of Canada went this direction, what it might say about the state of the economy, take stock of where we are with the ever-evolving global tariffs and much more. 

For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures 

Key moments this episode: 

1:11- JF’s main takeaway from the Bank of Canada’s latest decision 

1:54 - Was a hold the right call? 

2:45 - What did we learn from the latest inflation data for March about the impact on the economy? 

3:49 - The Bank of Canada laid out two illustrative scenarios for the economy, as it is difficult to create a forecast with so much uncertainty. JF explains why this is so rare, and walks us through the central bank’s two scenarios 

5:52 - What does JF forecast as the most likely scenario? 

7:17 - What is the probability of a severe recession in Canada? 

8:56 - An overview of the current state of tariffs in Canada and internationally 

12:00 - Are higher costs for businesses and suppliers starting to pass through to consumers? 

13:08 - What are the impacts on Canada’s jobs market? 

14:23 - What has the ripple effect been on the country’s housing market? 

16:07 - JF’s cautious outlook for upcoming Bank of Canada’s decisions 

18:22 - Main takeaways for Canadians