Ep. 233: Mirza Baig on Best EM Trades, Fed Easing and China Carry Trade
Sep 13, 2024
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Mirza Baig, a senior EM strategist with two decades in global FX and rates, shares his insights on emerging markets and the contrasting performance dynamics of China. He discusses the cautious optimism for Chinese stocks and the attractiveness of India's bond market to foreign investors. Baig emphasizes the importance of emotional regulation in trading and offers advice for young graduates entering finance, highlighting the need for proactivity and continuous learning in a rapidly changing workforce.
Despite recent struggles, emerging markets may present unique investment opportunities in the long-term due to favorable demographics and improving fiscal conditions.
China showcases a complex economic landscape where technology sectors prosper amidst broader challenges like high youth unemployment and deflationary pressures.
Deep dives
Challenges in Emerging Markets Performance
Emerging markets (EM) have struggled over the past few years, underperforming developed markets significantly since the onset of COVID-19. Hard currency bonds in EM fell short compared to U.S. high-yield credits, with local currency bonds also lagging. This decline in performance has diminished foreign investment interest, leading to a notable reduction in foreign ownership across EM equity markets. The general sentiment among investors is pessimistic, with many asset managers shifting focus from EM to developed markets for better returns.
Potential of Emerging Markets
Despite recent underperformance, the long-term outlook for emerging markets remains promising due to several favorable factors. Many EM nations benefit from strong demographics and are experiencing technology leapfrogging, allowing them to adopt advanced technologies like 5G with minimal prior infrastructure. Furthermore, improved fiscal conditions in several EM countries position them as strong contenders for future growth, particularly as global macroeconomic conditions fluctuate. Consequently, the current low interest in EM assets might serve as an opportunity for savvy investors when circumstances shift.
The Role of China in Emerging Markets
China's economic landscape is characterized by contrasting dynamics, with sectors like technology thriving despite weak overall consumer sentiment. The country faces significant challenges, including high youth unemployment and persistent deflation, which complicate recovery efforts. Government stimulus efforts have been insufficient, leading to concerns about further economic deterioration if stronger policy measures are not implemented. The relationship between U.S. monetary policy and global EM markets also underscores the complexities facing investors looking to navigate these fluctuations.
Mirza Baig is a senior EM strategist at Macro Hive. He has been researching and trading global FX and rates products for 20 years. His career boasts affiliations with premier sell-side entities such as Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank. Moreover, his invaluable expertise from the buy-side perspective at Point 72 positions him uniquely in the industry. In this podcast we discuss how EM has performed in recent years, the long-term case for EM, China: broad weakness, narrow strength, and much more.