Japan Reacts to Trump’s Victory, With Sheila Smith (Transition 2025, Episode 6)
Dec 10, 2024
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Sheila Smith, the John E. Merow senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at CFR, discusses Japan's nuanced reaction to Trump's election win. She highlights concerns over U.S.-Japan relations amidst Trump's hawkish approach to China. The conversation delves into Japan's evolving security strategy, balancing its pacifist history with rising threats. Smith outlines the implications for Japan-China relations under U.S. policies and explores the challenges facing Japan's new Prime Minister in navigating this complex geopolitical landscape.
Japan's outlook on Trump's re-election combines cautious optimism and concern, with Prime Minister Ishiba facing significant domestic and foreign policy challenges.
Rising tensions with China compel Japan to reassess its defense strategy and economic policies amidst Trump's protectionist trade approach.
Deep dives
Japan's Reaction to Trump's Victory
Japan exhibited a sense of predictability regarding Donald Trump's re-election, with officials showing both cautious optimism and concern. The country's past relationship with Trump, particularly the strong personal ties established by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, had created a robust dialogue for U.S.-Japan relations during Trump's first term. However, Japan's new leader, Prime Minister Ishiba, faces different challenges in engaging with a Trump administration that comes with more defined views on foreign policy and a more hawkish stance toward China. This shift indicates that Japan may need to adopt a more strategic approach in navigating its relationship with the U.S.
Challenges for Prime Minister Ishiba
Prime Minister Ishiba finds himself in a precarious position, having inherited a party that recently suffered significant electoral losses, resulting in a weak minority coalition government. His leadership comes at a time when Japan is grappling with various domestic challenges, making it difficult to establish a strong foreign policy stance, particularly with Trump. Unlike Abe, Ishiba lacks an established rapport with Trump, which may hinder efforts to replicate prior successes in their diplomatic engagements. With national elections on the horizon, Ishiba must focus on gaining parliamentary support while managing an increasingly complex international landscape.
Security Concerns in Northeast Asia
Japan's primary security concern continues to be the rising influence of China, which has been identified as an existential threat in its revised national security strategy. Japanese policymakers are particularly worried about China's military expansion and its implications for regional stability, amplified by North Korea's nuclear capabilities. Additionally, complications arise from Russia's military exercises with China, raising fears of a potential alliance that could threaten Japan's security. These concerns mandate a reassessment of Japan's defense strategy, including increasing its military budget and capabilities to meet these evolving challenges.
Trade Dynamics with the U.S. and China
Trade remains a critical issue for Japan, particularly in light of Trump's aggressive tariff policies. Japan's economy is intertwined with China, and while there is an urge to adopt a firmer stance against Beijing, the potential economic repercussions complicate that approach. Japanese firms are wary of U.S. protectionist tendencies, especially in the context of recent legislative moves affecting foreign investments. Balancing these dynamics, Japan seeks to enhance its trade partnerships while maintaining economic resilience amidst shifting U.S.-China relations.
Sheila Smith, the John E. Merow senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at CFR, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how Trump’s victory is being viewed in Japan and what his presidency will mean for U.S.-Japanese relations and the security situation in northeast Asia. This episode is the sixth in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2025 presidential transition and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.