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The Glenn Show
Rajiv Sethi – Taking Bets on the Presidency
Nov 1, 2024
Rajiv Sethi, a Professor of Economics at Barnard College and expert on prediction markets, dives into the future of the presidency. He discusses the tension between election forecasting models and prediction markets, suggesting that markets reveal the underlying narratives of an election. Sethi raises intriguing questions about potential manipulation in prediction markets and reflects on his family's ties to Kamala Harris. He also highlights the rising role of Indian Americans in politics and critiques oversimplified narratives surrounding cultural identity.
01:06:58
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Quick takeaways
- Prediction markets are shifting political forecasts by suggesting a higher probability for a Trump victory compared to traditional election models.
- The adaptability of prediction markets allows for real-time adjustments to evolving political dynamics, unlike traditional models restricted by historical data.
Deep dives
The Rise of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are becoming increasingly prominent and are presenting contrasting forecasts compared to traditional election models. With the upcoming election creating buzz, traders in these markets are assigning a higher probability to a Trump victory than many statistical models suggest. This divergence in predictions raises questions about the methods used in forecasting, indicating that markets are integrating a broader range of information and sentiments from traders. An example given is the contrasting probabilities: models might offer a 53 to 55 percent chance for Trump, while markets lean towards 60 to 65 percent, revealing a gap between analytical predictions and trader intuition.
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Discover
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode