The Seen and the Unseen - hosted by Amit Varma
Ep 349: The Incredible Insights of Timur Kuran
Episode guests
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- Preference falsification can shape one's identity and beliefs, leading to resistance in changing preferences.
- Social media amplifies preference falsification and contributes to polarization by encouraging extreme views and suppressing dissenting opinions.
- The incentive structure created by Islamic inheritance and partnership laws hindered economic development in the Middle East.
- Certain aspects of Islamic law implementation, such as egalitarian inheritance and limited partnership laws, had unintended consequences on economic growth.
- The Middle East recognized the need for legal and institutional reforms, borrowing systems from the West to stimulate economic development.
- There is potential for reformation within Islam, with demonstrations for women's freedom to unveil indicating the potential for change.
Deep dives
The Complexities of Istanbul as Home
Istanbul, with its rich history and cultural heritage, holds a special place in the speaker's heart as his childhood home. While the city has grown and changed rapidly over the years, there are certain parts and aspects that still evoke a sense of familiarity and belonging. The speaker values the historical neighborhoods and the refined social and dining scenes that have developed over time. Despite the immense growth and influx of migrants, the essence of Istanbul as a cosmopolitan and educated city still resonates for the speaker.
Navigating Academic Challenges
Academic pursuits can present challenges, particularly in the realm of remaining true to oneself while navigating narrow silos and intellectual fashions. The speaker acknowledges the pressures faced by young scholars and advises them to strike a balance between pursuing their passions and considering strategic choices. It is important to be aware of the changing landscape of academia and to find ways to stay intellectually engaged and connected despite potential loneliness and constraints. The speaker encourages forming communities with like-minded individuals and emphasizes the role of timing and long-term planning in pursuing meaningful scholarship.
The Speaker's Intellectual Journey
Born in New York City, the speaker moved to Ankara, Turkey, at an early age and later settled in Istanbul. Growing up in an academic household, the speaker was exposed to diverse intellectual discussions and developed an appreciation for multidisciplinary thinking. This early exposure influenced the speaker's pursuit of knowledge and his ability to integrate various disciplines. After attending Princeton University for undergraduate studies, the speaker embraced a liberal education that further nurtured a love for intellectual exploration and debate. The speaker's journey eventually led to a career in academia, where he focused on researching and writing about complex topics such as Islamic law and economic development.
Preference falsification can lead to societal shifts
Preference falsification can have significant effects on society, leading to shifts in societal norms and behaviors. For example, in the case of veiling, libertarians may advocate for a ban on veiling, believing that many individuals are falsifying their preference to wear a veil due to social pressures. On the other hand, fundamentalists may advocate for the freedom to veil, as they believe that this will increase social pressures and encourage more women to wear veils. The social dynamics created by preference falsification can result in tipping points where societal norms either slide towards traditionalism or become more liberal, creating either a vicious or virtuous cycle.
Preference falsification and the impact on individuals
Preference falsification can also have psychological and personal consequences for individuals. When individuals engage in preference falsification, they implicate themselves in the perpetuation of a system they may actually oppose. This can lead to feelings of guilt, anger, or resentment, and may make individuals resistant to changing their preferences. Moreover, persistent preference falsification can shape one's identity and beliefs, as it becomes a way of life and affects their behavior in various spheres.
The role of social media in preference falsification
Social media can amplify preference falsification by encouraging individuals to express extreme, polarized views to gain acceptance and approval within their ideological tribes. This can lead to a lack of nuance and understanding, as individuals feel compelled to align themselves with the dominant opinions and suppress dissenting viewpoints. Moreover, the use of social media can contribute to purification spirals, where individuals strive to be more extreme and uncompromising in their beliefs, further fueling polarization and limiting open dialogue.
Incentives of Middle Eastern merchants limited the development of advanced organizational forms
The incentive structure created by Islamic inheritance and partnership laws limited the accumulation of capital and discouraged the development of advanced organizational forms in the Middle East. The inheritance system, while egalitarian in the medieval context, limited the ability to pass down successful businesses across generations. The partnership laws resulted in small and simple partnerships that were incapable of scaling up and pooling resources on a large scale. These limitations hindered the growth of businesses and prevented the adoption of more advanced organizational forms that were necessary to exploit modern technologies efficiently.
Misconceptions about Islamic ideology and commerce
Several misconceptions about Islamic ideology and commerce, such as the idea that Islam is hostile to commerce, discourages innovation, or lacks curiosity about the West, have been debunked. Islamic law itself did not hinder economic development, but certain aspects of its implementation in the Middle Ages had unintended consequences. For example, the egalitarian inheritance system limited the accumulation of capital, while the partnership laws resulted in partnerships that were small, simple, and short-lived. These limitations, coupled with a lack of adoption of advanced organizational forms, contributed to the economic inertia and underdevelopment in the Middle East.
Recognizing the need for reforms and borrowing from the West
Although some innovations and reforms took place in the Middle East, such as the adoption of modern accounting systems, they were not widely adopted or recognized as useful within the region. Gradually, elites in the Middle East recognized the need for reform and the advantages of borrowing legal systems and institutions from the West. Foreign judges were initially brought in to help modernize the legal system, and eventually, locals took over and implemented reforms. This recognition of the need for change and the borrowing of legal systems from the West played a role in stimulating economic development and innovation in the Middle East.
Gradual Reformations in Islam and Potential for Change
There is hope for a gradual reformation within Islam, particularly in conservative societies where there is support for the right of women to veil and for individuals to interpret Islam differently. The Masa Amini protests in Iran, which saw demonstrations for women's freedom to unveil, even in conservative areas, indicate the potential for change. However, this change will likely come from within traditional Islam and will require leaders with impeccable religious credentials to break away from traditional interpretations. While the timing is uncertain, the potential for an alternative variant of Islam that is more tolerant and flexible does exist.
Importance of Civil Society in Promoting Liberalization
Civil society continues to exist and grow, even in the face of suppression, thanks to social media. While it may not be able to bring about immediate change, the existence of civil society, social media platforms, and the spread of liberal ideas provide hope for eventual liberalization. It is important to note that global public opinion and support from leading Western countries has waned, which makes it a challenging time for liberal causes. However, the persistence of civil society and the growing discontent with authoritarian regimes offer optimism for the long-term development of liberal ideas.
Books and Movies Recommendations
The book 'Censored' by Margaret Green is recommended for its exploration of new forms of censorship in the digital era and how governments and big companies control information. Works by Jim Scott, such as 'The Art of Not Being Governed' and 'The Hidden Transcript,' offer insights into how individuals and groups circumvent state regulations. In terms of movies, 'Oppenheimer' is highly recommended for its exploration of preference falsification and the impact of McCarthyism.
Why did the Middle East fall behind Europe despite being in a similar state in 1000 AD? How do modern authoritarians benefit from our tendency to falsify our preferences? Timur Kuran joins Amit Varma in episode 349 of The Seen and the Unseen to share his learnings from history -- and what they teach us about today. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Timur Kuran on Twitter, Wikipedia, Google Scholar and Duke University. 2. Private Truths, Public Lies -- Timur Kuran. 3. The Long Divergence -- Timur Kuran. 4. Freedoms Delayed -- Timur Kuran. 5. You Will Know Them By Their Unpopular Views -- Bryan Caplan. 6. The Hindu Equilibrium -- Deepak Lal. 7. From Cairo to Delhi With Max Rodenbeck — Episode 281 of The Seen and the Unseen. 8. The Life and Times of Nilanjana Roy -- Episode 284 of The Seen and the Unseen. 9. James M Buchanan, Albert O Hirschman, Mancur Olson, Thomas Schelling and Kenneth Arrow. 10. The Logic of Collective Action -- Mancur Olson. 11. Micromotives and Macrobehavior -- Thomas Schelling. 12. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty -- Albert O Hirschman. 13. A Theory of Justice — John Rawls. 14. Anarchy, State and Utopia — Robert Nozick. 15. A Trump wave is on the way (2016) -- Glenn Reynolds. 16. It’s Cascading Trump, It’s Cascading Modi! (2016) -- Amit Varma. 17. Instapundit -- Glenn Reynolds's blog. 18. Marginal Revolution. 19. Bari Weiss on Twitter, Substack and her own website. 20. VS Naipaul on Amazon. 21. Solomon Asch's experiments. 22. Irreversible Damage -- Abigail Shrier. 23. Luxury Beliefs. 24. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 25. Education in India — Episode 77 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Amit Chandra). 26. Fund Schooling, Not Schools (2007) — Amit Varma. 27. The Beautiful Tree — James Tooley. 28. The Incredible Curiosities of Mukulika Banerjee — Episode 276 of The Seen and the Unseen. 29. The Pathan Unarmed — Mukulika Banerjee. 30. The Mystery of Capital — Hernando De Soto. 31. Belling the Cat. 32. Oppenheimer -- Christopher Nolan. 33. Censored -- Margaret E Roberts.. 34. The Art of Not Being Governed -- James C Scott. 35. Domination & the Arts of Resistance: Hidden Transcripts -- James C Scott. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new video podcast. Check out Everything is Everything on YouTube. Check out Amit’s online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It’s free! Episode art: ‘Marketplace of Ideas’ by Simahina.
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