Show from 06/12/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss recent economic indicators, highlighting stable jobless claims, a neutral unemployment rate, and market reactions to labor reports. The Professor comments on inflation expectations, monetary policy, and a potential December equity rally while cautioning against market consensus. He forecasts moderate Fed rate cuts in 2025 and notes AI's role in future productivity. (16:00) Jeremy continues with guests Harley Bassman of Simplify and Dave Goodson of Voya, exploring fixed income strategies and opportunities in the mortgage and securitized credit markets. They discuss the appeal of newly issued mortgage bonds, challenges in the corporate credit landscape, and the implications of policy uncertainty. Harley emphasizes the benefits of selling optionality in mortgages, while Dave highlights the relative value in agency RMBS and structured credit markets. Both delve into the dynamics of private credit growth and the evolving role of volatility in investment strategies. Guest: Harley Bassman created, marketed and traded a wide variety of derivative and structured products during his twenty six year career at Merrill Lynch. In 1985 he created the OPOSSMS mortgage options product that facilitated risk transmission between MBS originators and financial institutions. In 1988, he assumed responsibility for trading and marketing IO/PO and other levered prepayment securities. Soon after this, he started purchasing RTC auctioned MBS Servicing rights and repackaged them for the securities market as BIGS - Beneficial Interests in GNMA Servicing. Later, he started a GNMA servicing conduit becoming one of the Top 20 originators in 1992. As managing and hedging prepayment risk became a priority focus for the financial markets, Mr. Bassman created PRESERV, Merrill's trademarked Prepayment Cap product. Merrill was a leader in this product category writing protection that covered the risk on tens of billions of notional mortgage servicing rights. Later, Mr. Bassman managed Merrill's initial venture into off-balance sheet mortgage trading. Dave Goodson is a managing director, head of securitized fixed income and a senior portfolio manager for non-agency and agency mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities strategies at Voya Investment Management. Prior to joining Voya, he was a principal at an independent investment bank focused on asset-backed commercial paper transactions. Previously, Dave began his career as a vice president in Wachovia Securities’ asset-backed finance group, marketing and executing securitizations for the bank’s corporate clients. He earned a BS in management from the Georgia Institute of Technology Follow Harley Bassman on X: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven Follow David Goodson on X: https://x.com/dg_davidgoodson Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/ Voya: https://www.voya.com/