Animal Spirits Podcast

New All-Time Highs! (EP.344)

6 snips
Jan 24, 2024
The podcast discusses the average length of bull and bear markets, the performance of small cap stocks, the large amount of cash in the market, the state of the labor market, airline credit cards, 0% rate loans, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, generational ownership of large homes, and the importance of assigning probability to predictions.
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INSIGHT

New All-Time Highs

  • The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high after a 746-day bear market.
  • This bear market was relatively short compared to the average of 1,100 days.
INSIGHT

S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000

  • While the S&P 500 is at an all-time high, the Russell 2000 remains down 20% from its peak.
  • This divergence has never happened before, raising concerns about small-cap stock valuations.
INSIGHT

Yield Curve Inversion

  • The yield curve inverted 15 months ago, signaling a potential recession.
  • However, its reliability as a recession predictor is questionable.
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