This podcast explores the unconventional path to China-related careers and the background in anthropology that shaped the guest's approach to analyzing the Chinese economy. They discuss China's confidence and aspirations to be the best in the world, their Leninist political system, and state capitalist economy. They also explore the ideas of Normocracy and Teleocracy in relation to China's political system, the debate on GDP growth and job creation, and the uncertainty surrounding China's growth trajectory.
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Quick takeaways
China's shift from economic growth to new goals has created confusion and ambiguity in policymaking.
There is no fixed relationship between political stability and economic growth within the Chinese system, leading to uncertainty in policy decisions.
Deep dives
China's new mobilizational goal and the search for clarity
China is in a moment of political instability as its mobilizational goal has shifted from economic growth to a new trajectory. While the specifics of this new goal are not yet clear, there is a general sense that economic growth is being downgraded in importance relative to other goals. However, the lack of a clear new goal has left the system and its actors uncertain about what their priorities should be. This has resulted in confusion and ambiguity in China's policymaking and has created a sense of unsettledness in the country.
The challenges of balancing growth and security
There is a debate about the trade-offs between economic growth and security in China. Some argue that Xi Jinping prioritizes security over growth, while others believe that growth is still a vital objective. The truth is that there is no fixed relationship between political stability and economic growth, and there is no clear consensus on the balance between growth and security within the Chinese system. This lack of clarity has led to confusion and uncertainty in policy decisions.
The changing nature of China's political economy
China's political economy is undergoing significant change. The previous focus on economic growth at all costs is giving way to a new set of priorities, including security concerns, technological self-sufficiency, and preserving traditional culture. However, the exact balance between these goals is still being negotiated, and there is ongoing uncertainty about the direction of China's political economy. The Chinese system is in a state of flux as it tries to navigate these changes.
The resilience and relevance of China's political economy
Despite the challenges and uncertainties, China's political economy is expected to remain robust and relevant. The country has already built up significant stocks of manufacturing capacity and technological capability, which will continue to contribute to its global importance. While the specific outcomes and trajectory of China's political economy are uncertain, it is unlikely to become internationally irrelevant. China's ability to catch up with technology and continue its economic development is seen as a driving force that will propel the country forward.
In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Andrew Batson, China Research Director at Gavekal Dragonomics to discuss his recent blog post entitled “Xi’s New Growth Synthesis.” He also publishes The Tangled Woof blog, and wrote the enlightening post “Some Cadres Cannot Keep Up.”
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