Macro Mondays Year-End Macro Wrap
9 snips
Dec 22, 2025 As the year wraps up, the hosts reflect on the volatile markets of 2025, highlighting key events like the AI CapEx cycle and Nvidia's soaring demand. They delve into Bitcoin's behavior, discussing halving cycles and macro influences. Regional winners like Korea and Spain are explored in light of a dollar-weak backdrop. The discussion shifts to automation's future, including AI agents and their real-world applications. Lastly, they address potential risks for 2026, emphasizing shifts in tech funding and bank regulations.
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Bitcoin May Be Becoming A Macro Asset
- Andreas warns Bitcoin's halving cycle link may weaken as institutional investors make it a macro asset.
- He doubts crude cycle rules will hold forever even if they worked this year.
Live Reaction To DeepSeek Sell-Off
- Andreas recalls recording live the morning of the DeepSeek sell-off and arguing AI would accelerate CapEx, not stop it.
- He uses a small Danish municipality buying Nvidia racks as proof that commoditization increases investment demand.
Cyclical Rally Drove Regional Winners
- Andreas attributes strong returns in Korea, Spain and Poland to cyclical rebound and semiconductor and bank strength.
- He expects pro-cyclical global growth, steeper curves and several US rate cuts to favor real-economy assets next year.