The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 358. Beige Book Insights, CMBS Lending Leaders, Data Center Risks, Walmart’s AI Move & NYC’s Office Comeback
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Oct 17, 2025 This week, hosts dive into the implications of a government shutdown and the heightened relevance of the Beige Book. They discuss a projected $123 billion in private-label CMBS issuance for 2025 and a worrying rise in special servicing rates. The conversation shifts to national security risks tied to concentrated data centers and Walmart's innovative collaboration with ChatGPT, reshaping retail. Finally, NYC's leasing market hits a 19-year high, showcasing a revitalized interest in premium office spaces.
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Beige Book Shows Labor Weakening
- The Fed Beige Book filled the data gap during the government shutdown by showing slowing regional activity and weaker hiring intent.
- Stephen Bushbaum and Lonnie Hendry view labor-market softness as the Fed's primary focus for upcoming rate cuts.
Waller Positioned As Fed Frontrunner
- Christopher Waller is seen as a frontrunner to replace Powell because he’s a consensus builder and more dovish on rates.
- His recent comments favoring smaller 25bp cuts signal markets might expect lower-for-longer policy if he leads the Fed.
IMF Flags Non‑Bank Lending Risks
- IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned about risks in non-bank lending after recent collapses like Tricolor and First Brands.
- Stephen says demand for yield and opaque structures in private credit raise monitoring and contagion concerns.