School of War Ep 242: Michael Sobolik on On Donald Trump’s Trade War with China
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Oct 24, 2025 Michael Sobolik, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and author, dives deep into U.S.-China relations and trade tensions. He shares insights on Trump's historical trade strategy and the geopolitical stakes surrounding the upcoming Trump-Xi summit. Sobolik explains China's use of rare earth resources as leverage and the implications of recent export controls. They also discuss the challenges of decoupling from China and what a 'good deal' should encompass beyond just trade, including issues like Taiwan and information warfare linked to TikTok.
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Different Strategic Lenses On Trade
- Donald Trump treats trade with China as a commercial, transactional problem focused on deals and tariffs.
- Xi Jinping treats economics as a tool of a broader geopolitical grand strategy aimed at reshaping the global order.
Four Chapters Of The 2025 Trade Fight
- The U.S.-China trade contest in 2025 unfolded in clear chapters from tariffs to export-control brinkmanship.
- Both sides hold leverage but are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken ahead of the Trump–Xi summit.
Rare Earths Became A Strategic Choke Point
- China used control over refined rare earth elements as a choke point to gain leverage in trade talks.
- That move exposed U.S. supply vulnerabilities and forced bilateral de-escalation efforts.
