The Dissenter #99 Hal Arkes: Biases, Heuritics, and Decision-Making
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Dr. Hal Arkes is Emeritus Professor of Psychology at Ohio State University. His research focuses primarily on areas like judgement/decision-making, medical decision-making, and economic decision making. He’s received several honors and awards over the years, such as President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (1996-1997); Elected "Fellow" of the American Psychological Society in 1997; College of Arts & Sciences Outstanding Teacher Award (Ohio University) in 1987; and Provost's Teaching Recognition Award (Ohio University) in 1989 and 1990.
In this episode, we talk about some of the main cognitive biases and heuristics (mental short-cuts) that affect decision-making, and particularly when applied to experts and professionals. Topics include: how everyone falls for biases; the bias blind spot; the hindsight bias; the outcome bias; being overconfident; situations where nonexperts perform better than experts; the familiarity effect; the availability heuristic; the sunk cost fallacy; and how to help people and experts make better decisions.
Time Links:
00:59 Experts also fall for biases and heuristics
04:26 The bias blind spot, or thinking that you’re immune to your own biases
05:44 The hindsight bias
08:27 The outcome bias
10:07 About Overconfidence
12:29 When do nonexperts outperform experts?
14:15 The familiarity effect
15:37 The availability heuristic
17:19 The sunk cost fallacy
20:50 How to group biases and heuristics
23:51 How to help people make better decisions
30:49 Follow Dr. Arkes’ work!
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Follow Dr. Arkes’ work:
Faculty page: https://psychology.osu.edu/people/arkes.1
Articles on Researchgate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hal_Arkes
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