Graham Allison, former student and colleague of Henry Kissinger, discusses Kissinger's legacy as a statesman, his engagement with history, and his brand of realism. They also explore Kissinger's accomplishments, failures, and concerns towards the end of his life. Topics include preventing great power wars, limiting nuclear weapons states, preventing destructive applications of AI, privacy risks, realism and idealism in international relations, and the rivalry between the US and China.
Henry Kissinger played a significant role in preventing great power wars and limiting nuclear weapons states.
Kissinger's strategic thinking involved understanding larger issues, finding opportunities for intervention, and shaping a nuclear order to prevent the use of nuclear weapons.
Deep dives
Kissinger's legacy as a statesman
Henry Kissinger's long and consequential life is filled with numerous accomplishments as a statesman. He played a significant role in preventing a great power war for 79 years, an unprecedented achievement. Additionally, he contributed to nearly 80 years without the use of nuclear weapons in warfare, an accomplishment of nuclear statecraft. Kissinger also played a part in limiting the number of nuclear weapons states to nine, rather than the 25 or 30 that were expected. His objective was to build a world without great power wars, and he made significant progress towards that goal.
Kissinger as a strategic thinker
Henry Kissinger approached issues with a strategic point of view, focusing on understanding the dynamics, drivers, and trend lines of the larger problem at hand. His approach involved recognizing the larger issues and finding opportunities to intervene and make improvements. For example, in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War, he saw an opportunity to exclude the Soviet Union from the Middle East by persuading Egypt to cut ties with them. He also recognized the potential for a stable peace between Egypt and Israel by trading land for peace. Kissinger's strategic thinking extended to the nuclear realm, where he played a key role in shaping a nuclear order that prevented the use of nuclear weapons and emphasized the necessity of constraining the risks of misunderstandings and miscalculations.
Kissinger's utilization of history and applied history
Henry Kissinger was a firm believer in the importance of history as a guide to understanding present-day international relations. He practiced what he called 'applied history,' using insights from past events to inform his approach to current challenges. Rather than applying history as a simplistic recipe, Kissinger understood that it required strategic imagination and identifying analogies or insights for dealing with complex situations. He utilized historical precedents to gain insights into diplomatic dynamics and potential interventions. For instance, in considering the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), Kissinger drew lessons from the nuclear era to explore how lessons learned from managing nuclear weapons can be applied to constrain AI's potentially catastrophic applications.
Critics and overlooked aspects of Kissinger
Henry Kissinger had his share of criticisms, including his involvement in the bombing of Cambodia and his role in the overthrow of Allende in Chile. However, it's important to understand that he worked under presidents, executing their decisions rather than being the sole decision-maker. Furthermore, Kissinger prioritized American interests and aimed to build and safeguard an international security order that allowed the US to thrive while preventing catastrophic wars. Moreover, it is crucial to recognize that Kissinger's remarkable life, marked by his escape from Nazism and subsequent success, is a testament to his appreciation for the opportunities provided by the US and his embodiment of the American dream.
Last week, former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger passed away. To assess his legacy, Jack Goldsmith sat down with Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University.
Allison knew Kissinger well. He first met Kissinger in 1965 when he was a student in Kissinger's class at Harvard. And Allison worked with Kissinger for decades, right up until the end of Kissinger's life, when he and Kissinger coauthored an essay published in October on arms control for artificial intelligence, perhaps Kissinger's last essay.
Allison and Goldsmith discussed Kissinger's accomplishments as a statesman, his cast of mind and long intellectual productivity, his engagement with history as a guide to international diplomacy, and his particular brand of realism. They also discussed Kissinger's failures and mistakes and what Kissinger was most worried about at the end of his life.