The podcast explores the booming market of private credit and its surprising resilience despite rising interest rates. It discusses the differences between private credit and corporate debt, and delves into the benefits of direct lending. The impact of increasing interest rates on the macro environment, companies, and defaults in the broadly syndicated market is examined. The podcast also explores how the credit industry has managed to avoid defaults and concerns about illiquidity in the private credit market.
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Quick takeaways
Private credit has defied expectations by continuing to boom despite rising interest rates, driven by strong demand and a flexible capital structure.
Private credit offers attractive features such as consistent yields, potential lack of correlation to other markets, and improved risk-adjusted returns.
Deep dives
Private credit has experienced remarkable growth
Private credit has experienced significant growth in recent years, with estimates suggesting that the market size is now comparable to the more broadly syndicated junk bond market. Despite expectations that rising interest rates would negatively impact the market, private credit has remained robust, driven by strong demand and a more flexible capital structure. This growth has been fueled by factors such as the perception of opportunities in private assets, the ability to provide more definitive terms to borrowers, and the benefits of a closer lender-borrower relationship.
Main characteristics and types of private credit
Private credit encompasses various types of debt, including direct lending, opportunistic debt, and real estate financing. These loans are privately originated, not intermediated by banks, and are usually not traded on public markets. Private credit loans can take different forms along the capital structure, such as senior or junior subordinated debt. They are often unrated, in contrast to publicly issued bonds. The attraction of private credit lies in its ability to offer consistent yield, floating rate structures, higher spreads compared to syndicated loans, and potential diversification from other public markets.
Less volatility and higher resilience in private credit
Private credit has demonstrated lower volatility and higher resilience compared to other credit markets, including publicly traded high yield and broadly syndicated loans. During the COVID-19 pandemic, private credit performed well, with lower default rates and more effective communication and collaboration between lenders and sponsors. The nature of the capital structure, lower leverage, stronger recourse to equity, and direct lender relationships have contributed to this resilience. Additionally, the private credit market has shown relative stability and consistency in yields, making it an attractive investment option.
The future outlook and considerations for private credit
Private credit is expected to continue expanding its market share in the credit industry. With the upcoming maturity wall in the syndicated market, there will likely be opportunities for private credit to refinance and provide financing solutions for borrowers. While increased regulation and scrutiny remain a possibility, private credit's lower leverage and more flexible structures offer inherent safety. The market's growth has been driven not only by regulatory changes but also by appealing features such as predictable cash flows, potential lack of correlation to other markets, and improved risk-adjusted returns.
It's no secret that the market for private credit has boomed in recent years. The surprising thing is that it has continued to do so even as interest rates have surged, defying many people's expectation that this relatively new market would suffer once an era of "loose" money comes to an end. Instead, the market for private credit in the US now rivals the size of the market for publicly-traded, junk-rated corporate bonds. But what exactly is private credit? How does it differ from broadly-syndicated stuff like leverage loans and corporate debt? How susceptible is it to higher rates? What is driving continued interest in this asset class? And what could cause it to wobble? On this episode we speak with Laura Holson of New Mountain Capital — where she manages about $9 billion across various private credit investments — about how the industry works.