Odd Lots The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope
95 snips
Mar 14, 2025 
Ryan Isakow, author of the No Dumb Ideas substack, dives into the intriguing history of prediction markets, focusing on 1500s Rome where betting on papal elections was all the rage. He reveals how social dynamics and insider info played into the gambling scene. Isakow discusses the implications of these markets for modern decision-making and the evolving relationship between politics, religion, and betting. Plus, he touches on how today's prediction markets echo those past practices, raising ethical questions about accountability and misinformation.
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Origin of Interest
- Ryan Isakow became interested in papal betting markets while researching prediction markets.
- He discovered a Polymarket bet on the next pope and the historical ban on such betting.
Papal Betting Ban
- Betting on papal elections was officially banned in 1591 by Pope Gregory XIV's papal bull, "Cogitnos."
- This bull decreed excommunication for those who bet on papal affairs.
Participants in Papal Betting
- Three main groups bet on papal elections: gentlemen, brokers (sensali), and financial institutions.
- These bets sometimes served as political risk hedging due to policy changes under new popes.