Bitcoin’s Price Is Way Up. And $48 Trillion in Wealth Just Got Access - Ep. 614
Mar 1, 2024
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Discover the impact of ETF inflows on Bitcoin's recent surge, insights into long-term vs. short-term holder behavior, potential outcomes of upcoming halvings and institutional involvement. Learn about the MVRV Z-score, implications of major financial players embracing Bitcoin ETFs, and the outlook for an 'altcoin season'. Get price predictions for Bitcoin by year-end and explore the evolving landscape of wealth management platforms integrating Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin's price surge is driven by substantial ETF inflows, exceeding $7 billion, fueling a 20% increase in just 20 days.
Approximately 75% of Bitcoin is held by long-term investors, showing confidence in the cryptocurrency despite slight transfers to ETFs.
Deep dives
Bitcoin Price Surge Driven by ETF Flows
The surge in Bitcoin price, nearing the previous all-time high, is primarily driven by significant ETF flows exceeding expectations. With over $7 billion of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, this influx of capital has fueled a 20% increase in just 20 days.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Reacting to Price Increase
Approximately 75% of Bitcoin is held by long-term investors, indicating confidence in the cryptocurrency. While there has been a slight transfer of coins from long-term to short-term holders, some investors are selling Bitcoin to buy into ETFs. This movement of coins does not signal a market top historically.
Significance of MVRV Z Score in Valuing Bitcoin Network
The MVRV Z score provides insight into comparing market value to realized value, indicating Bitcoin's cost basis across the network. By analyzing this metric, investors can gauge whether Bitcoin is currently over or undervalued. This metric remains a valuable tool despite potential limitations posed by on-chain data disruptions.
Bitcoin Futures Open Interest and Historical Comparisons
The analysis of Bitcoin price fluctuations relative to previous market cycles and halving events reveals distinctive patterns. The current landscape differs significantly from past cycles, with Bitcoin trading at a much lower percentage from the previous all-time high. The evolving dynamics within the market pose unique factors that could impact future price movements.
After a week in which Bitcoin nearly hit its all-time high, Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, joins Unchained to discuss the pivotal role of ETF inflows in Bitcoin's recent price surge, the nuanced behaviors of long-term versus short-term holders, and the potential impacts of upcoming halvings and institutional involvement on the market's future trajectory.
Alex offers deep insights into the market value to realized value Z-score, explaining its relevance in assessing Bitcoin's valuation. He also delves into the implications of major financial institutions like Merrill and Wells Fargo embracing Bitcoin ETFs for their clients. Furthermore, Thorn speculates on the timing and conditions for an "altcoin season" and shares his price predictions for Bitcoin by the end of the year.