The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Archive: Michael Beckley and Arne Westad on the U.S.-China Relationship
Nov 2, 2025
Michael Beckley, an expert on great-power competition, and Arne Westad, a historian of international relations, dive deep into the U.S.-China relationship. Beckley stresses the importance of prioritizing security competition to avert conflict, while Westad likens the current tensions to pre-World War I dynamics. They explore the risks of economic interdependence fueling rivalry, the complexities of U.S. outreach amid Chinese mistrust, and the critical need for strategic communication. Their discussion unveils how diplomacy can serve as a tool to buy time and mitigate risks.
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Watershed Moment Like Pre‑1914 Europe
- Arne Westad warns the U.S.-China relationship is sliding into an entrenched downward spiral like pre-1914 Europe.
- He urges disaggregation of issues to avoid conflating disputes that could lead to uncontrollable conflict.
Engagement Can Be Destabilizing
- Michael Beckley argues engagement alone is insufficient and can be destabilizing without a clear balance of power.
- Concessions can be exploited, turning détente into opportunity for the rival to expand strategic position.
Sequence Deterrence Before Provocation
- Reorder U.S. policy: prioritize credible military deterrence before widening economic or diplomatic pressure on China.
- Balance deterrence with selective engagement to signal costs of aggression while preserving cooperation.
