HousingWire Daily Jobs week, mortgage rates and the Fed
Jan 8, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst focusing on housing and mortgage markets, joins to discuss the latest jobs data and its impact on mortgage rates. He breaks down how job reports influence bond yields and mortgage spreads. Logan highlights the Fed's scrutiny of labor market internals, the predictors of policy shifts, and the importance of labor-force participation for long-term growth. He also touches on external factors like oil prices and political risks that could sway market reactions. Get ready for insights that connect the dots in today's financial landscape!
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Fed Watches Job Internals
- The jobs reports' internals matter more to the Fed than the headline employment numbers.
- Bond yields can rise on seemingly weak headlines if quits and other internals remain elevated.
Watch Jobless Claims Closely
- Track initial jobless claims as a leading indicator for Fed policy shifts.
- Expect the Fed to keep policy restrictive until labor market deterioration is clearly visible.
Yield Floor Linked To Labor Data
- Logan identifies a 10-year yield 'hoarder line' near 3.80% as a technical floor tied to labor and Fed stance.
- That floor held through 2025, signaling limited downside unless labor breaks or Fed turns dovish.