Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research, dives into the challenges facing the spring home-buying market. He discusses how economic factors like rising unemployment and high mortgage rates are affecting buyer confidence. The conversation explores the implications of fluctuating interest rates on home sales and highlights strategies builders are using to adapt. Simonsen also emphasizes the power of data in countering market fears, showcasing trends that reveal resilience in certain regions. It's a timely look at navigating a complex housing landscape.
Falling mortgage rates could typically boost demand, yet current economic fears over job security are dampening buyer interest in homes.
The shifting relationship between new and existing home sales indicates builders may need to adapt strategies to meet rising economic challenges and consumer demand.
Deep dives
Impact of Economic Uncertainty on Home Buying Demand
Current economic uncertainties, particularly due to rising tariffs and job losses, are affecting the home buying market. Although mortgage rates are falling, there are concerns that the fear of job losses might prevent potential buyers from entering the market. Traditionally, lower rates would spur demand, but the current climate indicates a shift in consumer mentality where job security weighs heavily on buying decisions. This complex situation highlights a potential disconnect between falling mortgage rates and consumer willingness to buy, especially since many buyers were previously hesitant due to high costs.
Indicators of Home Sales Performance
Key indicators show a continuing decline in home sales performance, with pending home sales down approximately 3% compared to last year. The percentage of homes experiencing price reductions is at a high of 33.7%, suggesting weakened demand. Recent trends indicate that while falling rates can boost demand, current economic conditions may overshadow this potential. As the spring home buying season approaches, the market dynamics remain uncertain, largely hinging on future rate changes and external economic factors.
New vs. Existing Home Sales Dynamics
The relationship between new and existing home sales is shifting, particularly as builders leverage the ability to buy down mortgage rates to stimulate demand for new constructions. However, increasing construction costs due to tariffs may hinder new home development, leading to a potential resurgence in existing home sales. The current market scenario poses challenges for builders, who may face rising inventory and pressure from economic uncertainty. As the market approaches 2026, this shift in sales dynamics could equalize competition between new and existing homes, affecting pricing and turnover rates.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Mike Simonsen, president of Altos, about saving the spring home-buying market amid a lot of economic challenges.
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.