Bet The Process John Shilling aka Golden Pants | Sponsored by Novig
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Oct 8, 2025 John Shilling, aka Golden Pants, is a former online poker player turned expert sports bettor and market maker, who shares his fascinating transition into sports betting. He dives into building models and automating market-making strategies while discussing how prediction markets are evolving post-PASPA. John explores the dynamics of liquidity in sportsbooks and evaluates whether platforms like Kalshi could dominate. His insights into modeling events like the Ryder Cup and the challenges of prediction accuracy add exciting layers to the conversation.
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From Poker Boom To Professional Bettor
- John Shilling started in online poker, read strategy books, and moved into trading and golf models after Full Tilt/Stars shutdown.
- He and partners pooled capital (~$75k each) post-PASPA repeal to go all-in on sports betting and now do it full time.
Balance Hot Opportunities With R&D
- Balance chasing short-term opportunities with building long-term R&D and infrastructure for durable edges.
- Take advantage of windows like PASPA repeal but allocate time to develop scalable systems that survive competition.
Market Making Is A Trade-Off Puzzle
- Market making involves trade-offs between quoting aggressiveness, latency, and fill quality across venues.
- Tweak logic iteratively because small changes can shift fills and P&L in unexpected ways.
