Episode 99: Semis Outlook for 2025 - Bullishness Remains
Jan 5, 2025
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The hosts dive into bold predictions for 2025, spotlighting market trends and the burgeoning role of AI. They examine the semiconductor landscape, expressing optimism for companies like NVIDIA while questioning AMD's trajectory. Excitement builds around augmented reality innovations and the evolving consumer electronics market. Additionally, spending in aerospace and military sectors reveals new opportunities. A tantalizing discussion emerges on the potential for Apple's foldable smartphone, weighing challenges against consumer anticipation.
Investors are optimistic about 2025, anticipating growth in sectors like consumer electronics and AI due to government spending and market expansion.
The competition between major AI players like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Microsoft will shape the landscape of software revenues and infrastructure investments.
Deep dives
Market Insights and Assumptions for 2025
Portfolio rebalancing among fund managers typically occurs at the start of the year, driven by data and human nature to set new plans for future investments. Managers often analyze macroeconomic conditions and sector performance, considering which areas will thrive in a growing economy. Many believe that 2025 will see increased spending due to government initiatives and economic expansion, prompting focus on growth-oriented sectors like consumer electronics and technology. This shift shapes investment strategies, as funds distribute weight across various industries based on optimistic growth forecasts.
The AI Spending Debate: Key Players and Competitors
A significant focus for 2025 centers around spending in artificial intelligence (AI), with companies expected to invest heavily in their infrastructures and technology. There is ongoing debate about which companies will benefit the most, particularly between NVIDIA and Broadcom, as both have considerable exposure to the AI sector. AMD's role in this AI wave remains uncertain, as stakeholders question whether the company can carve out a substantial share of the AI market. This competitive landscape raises questions on potential growth trajectories for each company based on their capabilities in the AI realm.
Projected Revenue Trends in Software Deployment
The discussion around software revenues is expected to gain prominence in 2025, as major cloud service providers lash out massive capital expenditures on infrastructure supporting AI technologies. As enterprises begin widespread AI adoption, businesses anticipate they will need to generate meaningful revenue from these new deployments. CIO and CTO surveys hint at a transition from project-based AI to full-scale deployments within organizations, led primarily by major players such as Microsoft and Amazon. However, challenges persist as there’s currently no clear understanding of how expenses related to AI infrastructure will translate into actual revenue.
Consumer Electronics Outlook Amid Economic Shifts
The trajectory for consumer electronics, specifically smartphones and PCs, appears cautiously optimistic for 2025. Despite a better performance expected compared to previous years, the growth rate for these categories is not anticipated to be significant, remaining in the mid to high single digits. Concerns linger regarding consumer demand and product vitality amid fluctuating economic conditions, as AI’s impact on these devices has not yet become a driving force. Ultimately, growth in the sector will likely hinge on competitive dynamics and developments in international markets.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss their predictions for 2025, focusing on market trends, investment strategies, and the impact of AI on various sectors. They explore the implications of the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the potential for growth in semiconductor stocks, and the importance of software revenue in AI deployments. The conversation also touches on consumer electronics trends, the future of AR glasses, and the aerospace and military spending landscape. Finally, they speculate on the likelihood of a foldable iPhone release in the near future.
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