Outlook for the Fed, the Flu, and Markets

Show from 04/25/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel covered the market impacts of tariffs, interest rate policy, and long-term inflation expectations. Professor Siegel emphasized the case for lower interest rates, highlighted trends in manufacturing decline, and discussed market resilience amid tariff concerns. (30:19) Jeremy is joined by David Kotok to discuss the economic consequences of tariff shocks, Federal Reserve policy, and insights from Kotok’s new book, The Fed and the Flu. They explore historical responses to pandemics, current financial stability risks, and the evolving role of central banks, while also addressing municipal bonds, gold, and global trade dynamics. Guest: David Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and during his career served as its chief investment officer, CEO, and board chairman. He remains a strategic advisor at Cumberland. David’s articles and financial market commentaries have appeared in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications. He is a contributor or source to Bloomberg, Yahoo, CNN, Reuters, USA Today, and other media. He holds a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and an M.A. in philosophy from the University of Pennsylvania. In addition to The Fed and the Flu, David has authored or co-authored four other books, including From Bear to Bull with ETFs (now in its second edition) and Adventures in Muniland. He has also written three monograph pamphlets. The first of these is “Lessons from Thucydides,” which details information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The second is “Zika,” a work that compiles David’s research, interviews, and personal experience concerning the Zika virus and its potential for serious damage in the way of health and monetary costs. The expense for individuals can be devastating; and in the case of governments, ballooning health budgets may affect municipal bond ratings. The third is “Yield Curve Control – The story of ZIRP and NIRP.” The yield curve is usually defined as the range of yields on Treasury securities from three-month Treasury bills to 30-year Treasury bonds. David’s narrative and graphics tell the story of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and NIRP (negative interest rate policy) and explore what happens when central banks use YCC to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve. David formerly served as Program Chairman for the Global Interdependence Center, or GIC, whose mission is to encourage the expansion of global dialogue and free trade in order to improve cooperation and understanding among nation states, with the goal of reducing international conflicts and improving worldwide living standards. David chaired the GIC's Central Banking Series and organized a five-continent dialogue held in Cape Town, Hong Kong, Hanoi, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Prague, Rome, Santiago, Shanghai, Singapore, Tallinn, and Zambia (Livingstone). He received the Global Citizen Award from GIC for his efforts and vision over many years and currently serves on the advisory board to the GIC’s College of Central Bankers. In conjunction with GIC, David organizes fishing retreats, primarily in Maine, that are affectionately known as “Camp Kotok” by friends and many in the financial press. Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product. Follow Sam Rines on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments GIC: https://www.interdependence.org/about/ The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Flu-Parsing-Pandemic-Economic/dp/B0DRWBC8XS