First Draft Live: Linneman Associates Principal and Founder Peter Linneman — Uncertainty Is The New Normal. Now What?

2025 has not gone according to plan.

Real estate has been bandied about by headwinds of economic, policy and fundamental changes. Interest rate reductions and rising deal flow has the industry feeling better, but stability is a pipe dream these days, especially when federal data is missing and CRE research can conflict.

But forget about the data, economist Peter Linneman said on this week’s show — how is it really going in your apartments or your office building?

He said CRE has gotten hooked on data analysis and has forgotten that what really matters are the fundamentals on the ground.
And while he agrees that uncertainty is the new normal, and that’s trouble for CRE, “people adjust.”

He foresees a meaningful return to transactions in 2026.
“There are people out there with courage, but they don’t have capital. And there are others out there whose short investment horizons have made them understandably and correctly not courageous,” he said.
“But when everybody else starts jumping, it’ll be like the wildebeests crossing the river. They all jump in.”