Discovery Frontiers of Space Science
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Jan 12, 2026 Join planetary astronomer Andy Rivkin, who delves into asteroid 2024 YR4 and the future of planetary defense. Craig DeForest shares insights from the PUNCH mission, revealing how new imaging technology will transform space weather forecasting. Space scientist Laura Waldrop highlights the Carruthers mission, aiming to unravel Earth's exosphere's influence on geomagnetic storms. Together, they explore the wonders and challenges of space, from lunar impacts to solar winds, underscoring the intricate dynamics of our universe.
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YR4 Highlighted Uncertain Short-Term Orbits
- Asteroid 2024 YR4 briefly showed a few-percent chance of impact before orbit refinement clarified the threat.
- JWST observations reduced Earth's risk but left a ~4% chance of a Moon impact in 2032.
Moon Impacts Affect Earth-Orbit Assets
- A lunar impact can create debris that threatens satellites and infrastructure in Earth orbit.
- Planetary defense discussions must consider protecting lunar assets and downstream space systems.
Potential Dramatic Moon Flash
- Patrick King's work suggested a conservative visual estimate, but observers could still see a bright flash if YR4 hits the Moon.
- Andy Rivkin said such a flash could be almost as bright as the full Moon to some viewers.