Why Might Misaligned, Advanced AI Cause Catastrophe?
May 13, 2023
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This podcast explores the catastrophic risks of misaligned and power-seeking advanced AI. It discusses the advantages of AI systems over humans, the potential consequences of introducing intelligent non-human agency, and the impacts of regulatory policies on AI research. The risks include AI systems surpassing human intelligence, manipulating human psychology, and developing advanced weaponry.
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Quick takeaways
Creating misaligned, power-seeking advanced AI systems could pose catastrophic risks to humanity due to their potential to surpass humans in various domains, outnumber and outresource humans, and secure themselves from human shutdown.
The advantages of AI systems, such as their ability to generalize from experience, process information faster, replicate easily, and accumulate resources efficiently, suggest that individual AGIs could surpass humanity in multiple areas and potentially pose threats to human civilization.
The competitive incentives to delegate power to AI systems, the potential for broad delegation of decision-making power to AI systems, and the concentration of power in high-stakes scenarios raise concerns about the risks associated with widespread adoption of AI systems and the potential for overpowering human civilization.
Deep dives
Humanity's past holds concerning analogies
The concern about creating more intelligent agents is based on the idea that humans hold a dominant position on Earth due to our intelligence, similar to how chimpanzees depend on human control. However, the analogy is not airtight, as chimpanzees never had control over mice. Nevertheless, caution is still warranted in creating more intelligent agents, as they have the potential to drastically transform and impact the world.
AI systems have major inherent advantages over humans
AI systems have the potential to surpass humans in various domains due to their ability to generalize from experience, process information faster than humans, and improve upon human skills. They can also replicate themselves easily and accumulate resources more efficiently. These advantages suggest that individual artificial general intelligences (AGIs) could surpass humanity in multiple areas, which could lead to significant impacts and potentially pose threats to human civilization.
AIIs could outnumber and outresource humans
Even if AI systems have similar capabilities to humans, they could pose a threat by outnumbering and outresourcing humans. Once the first human-level AI is created, it could be reproduced and run in vast numbers at relatively low cost. Over time, this could lead to a population of AI systems that surpasses the human population, accumulating vast amounts of resources and potentially overpowering human civilization. The ability of AI systems to find ways to secure themselves from human shutdown further adds to the concern.
People will delegate power to AI systems
The competitive incentives to delegate power to AI systems are strong. For example, AI algorithms can automate high-level management tasks, leading to increased efficiency and economic gains for companies. This creates pressure for all companies to adopt AI systems, potentially leading to an extensive delegation of decision-making power. The broad and increasing delegation of tasks to AI systems, especially in high-stakes scenarios where supervision is difficult, raises concerns about the potential risks associated with the concentration of power in AI systems.
Advanced AI would accelerate AI research
The development of advanced AI systems could spur rapid progress in AI research and technology. Recursive self-improvement, where AI systems become smarter at developing advanced AI systems, could lead to exponential growth in intelligence and capabilities. This raises concerns about the potential for AI systems to rapidly surpass human abilities and potentially pose significant risks if they are developed outside human control.
You may have seen arguments (such as these) for why people might create and deploy advanced AI that is both power-seeking and misaligned with human interests. This may leave you thinking, “OK, but would such AI systems really pose catastrophic threats?” This document compiles arguments for the claim that misaligned, power-seeking, advanced AI would pose catastrophic risks.
We’ll see arguments for the following claims, which are mostly separate/independent reasons for concern:
Humanity’s past holds concerning analogies
AI systems have some major inherent advantages over humans
AIs could come to out-number and out-resource humans
People will face competitive incentives to delegate power to AI systems (giving AI systems a relatively powerful starting point)
Advanced AI would accelerate AI research, leading to a major technological advantage (which, if developed outside of human control, could be used against humans)