HousingWire Daily Are we headed into a recession?
12 snips
Sep 24, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst known for his insights in housing and macroeconomics, joins to dissect recession risks. He outlines six critical recession red flags, particularly focusing on labor market indicators. The conversation delves into how past trade tensions have influenced growth and analyzes current credit conditions, especially in commercial real estate. Logan also explains how economic slowdowns typically lead to lower mortgage rates, as investment shifts toward bonds. His watchful eye on labor data reveals insights that could signal shifts in the economy.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Mixed Signals, Not A Clear Recession
- Logan argues the economy shows mixed signals and is not obviously in a recession yet.
- He notes stock markets and credit markets lack classic end-of-cycle stress despite slower job growth.
Wait For Labor Triggers Before Declaring Recession
- Do not assume recession until labor triggers like jobless claims rise substantially.
- Track jobless claims toward Logan's $323,000 four-week average threshold as a key trigger.
Sector Job Losses And Strong Household Balance Sheets
- Logan emphasizes sectoral job losses matter most when manufacturing and construction fall together.
- He highlights household balance sheets remain strong, supporting consumption despite stress in lower-income credit.