The HC Commodities Podcast The Big Picture with David Fyfe
Dec 17, 2025
David Fyfe, Chief Economist at Argus, shares insights into the evolving macro-economic landscape as we near 2026. He discusses the surprising impact of US tariffs on global trade and the looming inflationary effects they might bring. There's a deep dive into AI's influence on equity gains and how fiscal risks could shape macro markets. The conversation also highlights Europe's sluggish growth and China's property sector troubles. Fyfe warns about a potential supply surplus from OPEC+ and underscores the urgent need for upstream investment to meet future energy demands.
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Episode notes
Tariffs Added A Lasting Trade Risk
- US tariffs introduced a new persistent risk that will dampen global trade growth into 2026.
- Tariffs are inflationary and costs have largely been absorbed by suppliers so far, not consumers.
AI Floated Equities, Not The Broader Economy
- Strong US equity performance in 2025 was led by AI winners, masking uneven consumer strength.
- Tariff-driven inflation could slow Fed cuts and support the dollar in 2026.
Europe Faces Structural Energy And Growth Limits
- Europe remains an economic laggard still coping with the 2022 energy shock and productivity shortfalls.
- Public finances and an ageing population constrain rapid clean-energy investment and growth.