Europe's Far-Right Now the Most Popular Party

In this episode, Malcolm Collins and Simone dive into the rise of far-right political parties in Europe, comparing current trends to historical contexts. They discuss the Economist article detailing how far-right factions have grown since 2010, eclipsing numbers seen during the 1930s-1950s. They dissect perceptions about these parties, societal reactions, and the shifting political landscape, using graphs and data to illustrate their points. The conversation also touches on American politics, media biases, and the broader implications of rising political polarization.

Malcolm Collins: [00:00:00] Hello, Simone. Today, we are going to be going over an article in the Economist and a few other papers that looked at the rise of the far right in Europe now being the single largest political party faction in all of Europe.

Not only that, But it is higher now than it was at any point from the 1930s to the 1950s, i. e. during the rise of the actual Nazis by, and, and, and the fascists in Italy and all of that. Now, I will say here really fascinatingly that this is BS that the far right that they're talking about, like the far right, before we go too far into this, like the AFD in Germany, right, is a party that they're like, this is just like the Nazis and the right just keeps going further right.

And the head of it is a gay woman who is in a long term with [00:01:00] children, maybe not marriage, but long term with children interracial relationship with another woman and they live mostly in Switzerland, not in Germany. What? That is how Oh, that's so European. nationalist Racist and homophobic this party is.

Oh my gosh,

Simone Collins: I had no idea, that's crazy that she also doesn't live that much in Germany.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, not that dedicated to German identity. She's just like, hey, but like, well, I don't know. I mean, with

Simone Collins: the

Malcolm Collins: direction Germany's

Simone Collins: going and can you blame her? She's, it's kind of a testament to where they are right now.

Malcolm Collins: Oh yeah, absolutely. So we're going to go over this graph. Actually, like, let's start with this graph . I find it really interesting. So first the question is, is who is the hard right gaining from? Like, who has been losing? When did the hard right start going up?

So the hard right really started going up in 2010.

Simone Collins: And we

Malcolm Collins: see this exponential rise [00:02:00] since then, especially in the past couple of years and it was no real losses in that period. Now, keep in mind, that's a long period. This is a period of 15 years.

Simone Collins: Yeah,

Malcolm Collins: it's quite a run. And with Trump advance, absolutely killing it.

I expect it to continue to rise. I think when we open like calls with people, I don't even know are like political now in Europe. They're like, Oh my God, I'm so envious of things in the U S right now. And I'm on this great thread with all my class at the GSB and they're all these, you know, corpos, this is the Stanford graduate school of business.

And they're like freaking out about this and like calling everyone like a Nazi and dehumanizing the other side as much as they can. And occasionally the right. We'll be like. Well, I really don't know if it's like helpful to like dehumanize your opponents, especially the people who are supporting the rallies in our major cities saying from the river to the sea, or, you know, when you guys didn't even hold a primary, the selection cycle, or when you guys literally controlled all of the media and every social [00:03:00] platform, or when you guys, whatever, whatever any of those things are like, I don't know, it's helpful.

But like they, no, no, they're like, and they're always so meek, the voices on the right. They're like, just maybe, could we

Speaker: Good morning, Philadelphia. With us today is

Microphone (Wireless Microphone Rx)-3: Malcolm Collins.

Speaker: local business owner and a man with a harrowing story. That's right. A few days ago, three

Microphone (Wireless Microphone Rx)-5: Corpos sent me a chain of emails slagging off our boys, Elon and Trump.

Speaker: now, I want to be very clear about something. Um, Mr. Reynolds These pieces of garbage, they don't know who the hell they're dealing with. So these punks I don't know if they wanted money, or they wanted something more sexual. Anyway, I started .

Microphone (Wireless Microphone Rx)-6: Magging.

Speaker: Bah! Bah! I don't see so good, so I missed. Anyway, you guys all think I'm a hero. And I'll accept that responsibility. Now, were you concerned, though, that an innocent bystander may have Look, crime in this city is out of control.

Thank God

Microphone (Wireless Microphone Rx)-8: We've got two presidents with Trump and Elon absolutely killing [00:04:00] it.

Speaker: I don't think one would have done it. I'm gonna go out and buy some more. Okay. And I think you should, too. Don't be a victim. It's time to fight back. Thank you.

Malcolm Collins: but it does give me heart. It does make me feel good because I know that these are, you know, Stanford business school, all these people run major companies. Some of them have a ton of money,

and that means that they're competent people and they still are so deluded that they can't even like play ball was like the actual ball they're playing ball was like an imaginary, the right is homophobic ball.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Like, it's like, okay, well, okay, you guys aren't even on, on the court now, right?

Like you guys are in some other zone, but , I wanted to talk about where we're rising from. So, since the 2010s, who are we eating right now? So, the conservative vote has gone down dramatically.

Simone Collins: Well, this is where I get a little confused, because if I look at this without having a lot of context I see basically a mirror rise in the hard right and a mirror fall and conservatives, is this not just the media or other players reframing conservative as hard right?

Because these days it seems like very moderate. [00:05:00] No,

Malcolm Collins: because it's not a mirror fall, which you also have as a drop in the social democrats.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Which is the center left party. So it's not just eating the conservatives. If you look at the major jumps, like the major jump that happened around, it's a bit hard to tell when that is, like, I want to say 2015 maybe or 2016 that happened at the expense of the social Democrats more than at the expense of the conservatives.

It's only the most recent jump that was mostly at the expense of the conservatives.

Simone Collins: But isn't it more broadly that anyone who is. Center right or moderately right is now being framed as crazy far rights and but what's really happening is the left is taking increasingly extreme stances forcing not

Malcolm Collins: exactly but we'll go over the data on both of this really what we're seeing is a hard right has become an anti authoritarian party.

And an anti establishment party. And the other side, like just fundamentally doesn't understand how authoritarian they've become in their impulses. Because, and they're like, what? We're [00:06:00] not authoritarian. We only do it to the inhumans, the deplorables, the whatever they want to call them. Right. You know, but anyway, let's read from this article.

Cause I found it really interesting.

Simone Collins: Okay.

Malcolm Collins: On February 23rd, more than one in five German voters supported the hard right alternative for Germany. AFD, the party, which is under surveillance by domestic spooks for suspected extremism, doubled his vote share since the previous election. This is so much like when they're like, Donald Trump convicted felon and I'm like, what is he fell in for?

Like, why, why are they under surveillance? It's like, so you're saying that you've become a. Fascist police state, and this is the opposition to the fascist police state. That's what you're saying when you're saying the spooks are watching them, when they are the party run by an interracial relationship lesbian with Kids, you know, like what are you what are you talking about?

Not so long ago This would have been unthinkable in a stable wealthy and moderate country in the heart of europe But over the past 15 years hard right parties [00:07:00] have made substantial gains across the region also an interesting thing in this graph that I was looking at some reddit notes on this where somebody was like well You can see the massive shift comes after the syrian refugee crisis in 2015.

This is when you see a drop in democrats, but In Australia, the Freedom Party, FPO, also won 28. 9 percent of the votes in September 2024 and they're considered a far right party and that was the most votes they have gotten since World War II. So you see this everywhere. And in the United States, we didn't get hit by the Syrian refugee in the same way as Europe did.

And somebody else said in Reddit, and I thought that this was really good because this is somebody who's like anti the far right said that. So I saw that it was a really good hard right or anti establishment because all the Russian interference and social media bubbles. Side, the political establishment have failed to find a solid answer for over a decade to growing discontent in society because the answers of the hard right parties and the insistence on putting blame on migrants are wrong.

. They are the only parties providing answers that are not 40 pages [00:08:00] long and mired in excuses and diversion of blame. And that's true. And Trump isn't even being, like, all anti. He's just handling the effing problem right now. But on my email feed, the corpos are freaking out.

They, but they benefit from the existing social hierarchy. That's when, when you're corpo, right? If you have a position in the establishment. No one was even like, I saw what happened at Twitter and you're thinking of, you mean the substantial reduction of staff at exactly the same quality of product being given to us a few months later, she's like, it's only being used to promote one point of view.

I'm sorry. I see both point of views. Now, if anything, the only reason it's only one point of view is the left has. self silence themselves by going to blue sky, and that's only recently. It used to be you could only see one point of view, I agree with that, but you know they say, to a person who has lived with privilege, having that privilege removed feels like oppression.

Anyway, back to the article. The origin of Europe's recent hard right Surge is [00:09:00] difficult to pin down. Some theorize that beginning with the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, voters were driven away from the mainstream and towards the extremes by economic anxiety, but this is mixed. Europe is as the richest it's ever been.

If you look at economic growth, when contrasted with the U S Europe has been basically static since the two thousands

Simone Collins: stagnant. Yeah. And I think it's. It's just the regulation, the regulatory environment is so stifling. They cannot thrive economically.

Malcolm Collins: Well it's that and I think they create an environment which is actively hostile to productive individuals if you're a country that gives money to non productive individuals from productive individuals.

But the evidence for this is mixed. Europe is. the richest it's ever been, and hard right parties often win substantial support in the well to do. You could hardly look at the Netherlands, one of the wealthiest countries in the world, per person, and cite economic anxiety to explain this hard right [00:10:00] led government.

Yeah, but you could look at their immigrant situation. Like, it's not exactly hard. It's like you beat someone with a chair and are now like, why does this person hate me? They, they, is it all the grapes? They can't care that much about the grapes and terror attacks. That stuff is like a minor, minor, minor.

Anyway. Another often heard argument is that the hard right represents a backlash against the migrant crisis that came to a head in 2015. Irregular immigration to some European countries has remained very high. Again, this theory is imperfect. In Germany, like many other countries, the hard right support comes predominantly from areas with little immigration.

In fact, the association between immigration rates and support for the hard right is weaker than you might expect. Ireland has one of the largest foreign born populations in Europe. For example, but no major hard right party. The inverse is true of Poland. Yes. Except it might be that parties was a natural, more right leaning tendency would [00:11:00] keep out the immigrants at higher rates.

And when they don't have this tendency yet, they have some degree of self preservation, high degrees of immigrants caused them to turn hybrid. It's just that Ireland has no degree of self preservation anymore. And I direct your attention to these maps and graphs here because I find them very interesting.

So this is a map of the percent of hard right you have was in a country's voting population with the high ones being France, Italy, Poland and Hungary, very high in Germany, turning higher in Norway, turning higher. Sorry, not Sweden or Norway. Yeah, I never know which one's which I want to say Norway, Norway and Finland.

And then You know, in the low end, you have countries like Ireland, Spain is that Greece? Yeah,

Simone Collins: right.

Malcolm Collins: , I'm not long for this earth. Anyway, so if we look at the map here you see the European democracies, hard right vote share and population born abroad. And there is definitely a core inverse correlation here.[00:12:00]

Simone Collins: Yeah. Interesting. And yet,

Malcolm Collins: despite the growing popularity, our analyst shows they remain underrepresented in government. Grouping together hard right as a single ideology across various countries is tricky. We drew on the research of the University of Bremen. and populist list, a pan European data set of populist political parties to form a list.

We then track the representation since 1920. Based on our list, we found Europe's hard right parties received 20 percent of the vote in recent elections, winning 23 percent of parliamentary seats, but they make up just 14%. So 23 percent of the votes, 14 percent of the seats held by parties that are in power, just two heads of government, Gregory Maloney of Italy and Victor Orban of Hungary.

Come from hard rate parties on our list. See chart three. Mm-hmm . Now I note here this means that the hard rate is gonna get much worse in Europe than it is in the United States. Wait, why? You have no, they won control showed themselves to not be [00:13:00] perfect and then lost control issue.

Simone Collins: Oh yeah. They're, they're not giving, they're not being given the opportunity to disappoint people.

Yes. Oh, I don't know. Maybe that's for the best. What happened with, you know, Trump getting into office and like delivering and delivering and delivering. He hasn't stopped yet. So maybe I'm

Malcolm Collins: loving it. I'm loving it. Everyone I know is, what is it? Doge has like a 70 percent approval rating or over

Simone Collins: 70 percent approval rating of the American public.

So people love Doge. And then when federal workers complain to them, they're like, well, let's. So I'm so sorry

that

you aren't getting your subscription from me anymore. Yeah, I guess that's what it's like for me every day for my entire career in the private sector.

Malcolm Collins: I love it. They're like, no higher up in a company would ever ask employees what they're doing on a daily basis.

Like, yes, they would. Are you out of your mind? Like, how are you that disillusioned? And I'm realizing that people who are saying this are people in media. They've never had their boss [00:14:00] asked for, for metrics is what it is.

Simone Collins: Oh, I don't know. I think people in media have gone through quite a few layoffs and firings, and they're very aware of the fact that if they cannot drive views, they are out.

So, well, yeah,

Malcolm Collins: but it's just views. They don't have their boss asking them, how are you driving views? Why are you doing? Like,

Simone Collins: what are you doing? What, what, what actions are you taking? Yeah, it's more just results driven.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. And so they're really disconnected from the way the actual corporate world works.

We, we, by the way, as people who run companies have asked all the employees in our company, what are you doing every week at times when we were going through specific, like improvement issues or issues? Yeah.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Okay. So this has drawn and I love this. They're like, they're not getting in the office at the same rate, which is a good thing.

Right. And then they're like, But, but, this has drawn condemnation from hard right populists around the world. J. D. Vance, America's Vice President, has criticized European leaders for, quote, shutting people out of the political process, end quote, which they have. Indeed, in some countries, the hard right has been locked out of power.

In Germany, for [00:15:00] example, the AFD is excluded from coalitions by the firewall that other parties maintain around it. That has done little to put voters off, but this is hardly undemocratic. How is it not undemocratic? And then I love this. They say, remember, one of the reasons the hard right hates you is because you keep lying, media.

But let's make this little fun lie. More than three quarters, so more than 75 percent of Germans, say that they oppose the country's biggest elected party, the Christian Democratic Union, forming a coalition with the AFD. In other words, the firewall is not a stitch up by liberal elites. Okay, so over 75 percent of the country doesn't support them crossing the firewall, but 21 percent voted for the AFD?

That is completely implausible.

Simone Collins: Oh my god.

Malcolm Collins: It's like, are you, like, just assume that people are idiots? [00:16:00]

Simone Collins: Yeah, I mean, it's only gonna get worse if this gaslighting continues. Yeah. And it's so much worse.

Malcolm Collins: Even with minority support, the hard right is disrupting politics across Europe, leaving the question of how other parties should respond.

Many mainstream parties have decided that the hard right is simply too big to work around. However, while Germany's firewall has not prevented the rise of the AFD, evidence from elsewhere suggests that dropping firewalls legitimizes them. Oh no! How dare you legitimize citizens! Who are voting in Sweden, where mainstream parties have abandoned a firewall against Sweden's Democrats, the SD, the hard right props up a minority government research suggests that voters now view the hard right more favorably.

Wait, after they got into power and ran the government, they're viewed more favorably. I thought you said they were being propped up by a minority. It doesn't sound like that.

Simone Collins: Oh, my

Malcolm Collins: gosh. [00:17:00] Anyway, so, anything you want to say before we go further?

Simone Collins: No, let's go ahead.

Malcolm Collins: Okay. So, I'm going to put some graphs on screen here.

This one is in the United States, but we're looking at the increase in political polarization. This is from Pew Research. And so this is Democrats political ideology based on annual averages. How would you describe your political views? Very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal.

And what you see here is that basically since the 2000s, the Democrats have been getting more liberal. Now, what happens if you go to Republicans with a similar graph? Republicans, political ideology based on internal averages, not the same. It's been staying about average, only getting slightly more conservative.

In fact, it's been getting so much more liberal on Democrats than it used to be. That the liberal perspective was even less common in 1995 for Democrats. than the conservative perspective. It was, and it was dramatically less common than the moderate [00:18:00] perspective, only passing the moderate perspective in around 2006 or seven.

Simone Collins: No, the Overton window has been shifting way too much on the left. Yeah, way too much. I think this is an example though of how, I guess, modern culture Has this flywheel effect that when you leave a traditional culture and you let go of the guide rails and you're like, you know what, I don't have culture.

I don't have a religion. There are no more rules there. It doesn't stop the, the, the spiral into crazy. We haven't found the stopping point yet, right? It just keeps going.

Malcolm Collins: So I'm gonna put a few more graphs on the screen. This is from a different study, also by Pew. So in 1994, you can see that the median Democrat and the median Republican were about in the center.

In 1999 like, mitosis, you see them beginning. Well, actually, you see the Republicans staying exactly where they used to be.

And you see the Democrats going further left. In 2004, you see [00:19:00] the Republicans going to the center. The average Republican position in 2004 was right in the center, and the Democrats had moved further left

Then in 2015 the Republicans are like, eh, and they started to shift to the right. The Democrats continued to shift further to the left. Then in 2017, the Democrats are all bunched up on the far far side of the left. And the Republicans are sort of center right-ish right now. And. If you want to say, well, you can be like, well, has it really worked that way?

And let's take a specific issue like same sex marriage. So I think what we're actually seeing here is a shift in what the parties stand for to being an anti authoritarian anti establishment party and being a pro authoritarian, anti democratic sort of globalist bureaucrat party.

So if you look at things like same sex marriage support, right now, here's a shocking statistic.

Did you know that in actually,

2008. So until quite recently significantly less Democrats supported [00:20:00] same sex marriage than Republicans support same sex marriage today.

Simone Collins: Yeah,

Malcolm Collins: that totally makes sense. In, in. In 2008, fewer Democrats, so this is like within most of your lifetimes, supported same-sex marriage than Republicans supported today.

If you go back to 2012, if you go, okay. How many Republicans supported same-sex marriage? Well, actually okay, we'll do 2021 to get the Republican numbers. Mm-hmm . 2021. So this is a while ago, right? You still had more Republican support of same sex marriage in 2021 than you had Democrat support of it in 2008.

Let's go over the numbers. So that was a quick shift there, but it also shows that you're getting like convergence, right? Well, and the

Simone Collins: conservatives. Aren't what they used to be also conservatives, although they're sort of showing up in some numbers is more or less staying unchanged, not getting more conservative, but just kind of staying where they are.

They have actually become [00:21:00] significantly more liberal.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, well, not liberal. I just say that we don't care about this part of the culture war.

Simone Collins: The

Malcolm Collins: conservatives have stolen the gay vote and a lot of people are like, Oh, why do you care about that? Because it's useful and they're productive. And like, why wouldn't they, they, they fund a lot of stuff.

They're some of the people on the Doge team. There's some of the people in Trump's government. He's got multiple gay, high level officials. They're Peter Thiel, who basically started the new right there. Scott Pressler, who could have, if things had been tighter, handed the election to Trump. But if we go for, and we're not losing anything for this.

We don't need to oppose, like, we're not Sharia law, like, we're Christians here, right? Like, we write, like, we are Christians, like, render undeceiver what a Caesar. One of the distinctive things about Christianity is it doesn't attempt to impose its value system on the population.

Through the government, at least it, it attempts to say that you should do this if you want to be like a good person or you want to follow the Bible, but like, it's, it's Muslims who attempt to impose this on the population.

That's, I don't want to say it's what we're fighting against, but it might be something we have some [00:22:00] concerns or trouble issues about. So let's look at the stats here. So same sex marriage support in 2014, 35 percent of Republicans supported it. So in 2014, you know, you already had over a third supporting it in 2021, 51 percent of Republicans supported it in 2021 already.

If you were only trying to win among Republicans, you couldn't win if you were opposed to same sex marriage. This is, again, why I'm like, why would anybody push this when it hurts them so much within their own base? It's a completely self masturbatory and indulgent position at this point. In 2023, 55 percent of Republicans supported it.

But if we look at how fast things have shifted among Democrats, . In 2001 it was 45%. In 2008 it was 50%. In 2021 it was 65%. In 2019, it was 75%. In 2024, it was 83%. Oof. I actually find that number a little low for Democrats. Only 83% of Democrats approved same sex marriage.

Simone Collins: That is not what I expected, but I guess when I think back to the overwhelmingly. [00:23:00] Remember Obama that I consumed as a kid. It was still seen as kind of, Oh, this is kind of scary. So I guess, I guess that makes sense.

Malcolm Collins: About the Democrat move to the left. And this was talked about in the Pew research is the only, you know, if you're talking to only democratic faction, this move to the left is white Democrats.

Black Democrats that stayed equally conservative as they've always been, or actually much more aligned with conservative voters on most issues.

And then the Hispanic party is. Well, it's moving to the Republican side, as we saw, you know, more Hispanic males voted for Trump than voted for the Democrats in this last election cycle.

I think it was 45 percent overall voted for Trump.

Simone Collins: I

Malcolm Collins: remember exit polling. So, thoughts on all of this?

Simone Collins: I'm a little bit afraid of the post correction fallout, but I guess this is all very normal. Like, I'm already [00:24:00] hearing some Centrist left people talking about the preparation for the post right swing adjustment. Like they were already sort of thinking ahead to that. I don't think it's going to happen.

You don't. So how do you think it's going to play out? Because I mean, I

Malcolm Collins: think that there is I think that the left Look, the reason you had a swing back to the right is the left acted like effing idiots. They, they went with all this crazy, you've seen this a little bit with the right with some people on the right, like going anti pornography, anti Gooner, anti the Gooner vote's important to the right

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Malcolm Collins: the Gooner vote's important to the right important to the right and the mainstream like right, influencers know this who aren't idiots, like, let's say Matt Walsh or something who's like, I hate anime, like, I hate like, grow up.[00:25:00]

I hate video games. It's like, that's the right. You know that, right? Like whoever is, what is wrong with you? Are you like, do you have the strategy brain of a child?

For people who don't know why the right predominantly watches things like anime over traditional shows and why many anime people aren't in the right is because if you want non woke media or media that wokeness hasn't completely infiltrated and turned into bland slop, you're gonna be looking at anime.

And for a long time it was also you were looking at video games until that industry completely went woke and as you can see How far right the gamers are like literally no one is buying these games anymore Life is strange recently did like a woke remake Not that the first one wasn't that woke and it got I I can't remember but like 5 000 concurrent players or something Like really really low.

As to how the Gooners went to the right, it was because, well, they were mostly males, and the left just loves ruining the lives of males whenever they can, so they went against attractive women in video games, [00:26:00] and attractive women online, and attractive women in ads, and anything potentially hot anywhere.

And I'd point out here that it's not that I think that Matt Walsh is actually an idiot with this stuff, I just think that fundamentally he has no loyalty to the right or rightist causes, and would throw them under the bus if he could use that throwing under the bus to elevate his own status and play within these status hierarchies.

Because fundamentally that's what somebody's doing when they go anti Gooner, when they go anti video games, when they go anti anime, you know. Uh, they're, they're saying, I know that this couldn't even win an election if I was only peddling to the right, but it does help me appear to be higher status, or quote unquote more correctly right within certain right wing circles, and I can use that to elevate myself even if it hurts the party.

And the same way the left did this with a lot of like crazy trans issues and stuff like that. And we should see people like this, the way the left should have always been seeing the people who came up to You know, , children's reading rooms and devil masks. It's [00:27:00] like, okay, you know you guys,

You can personally argue whether this stuff is right for you But like you have to know this is losing us election cycles at a time when like the species is on the line

But the mainstream, I think id of the right, which I've seen has not actually latched on or defended these insane ideas. Somebody on the right will go up and be like, I think pornography should be banned.

And everyone else is like, again, we're not Muslims. Like we're Christians. Okay. Like We give them like a, what, what's wrong with you vibe and the left, whenever they would do something crazy, whenever they had their you know, Leah Thomas or whatever, they'd all jump to defend her, which is not what we're seeing in the right.

When people on the right go crazy and take these positions everyone else is like, get out of the room, please. It's the same as like the, Oh, you know, like we should ban gay marriage again. It's like, we're, we're actually winning here. Can we not take a position that wouldn't even win among the Republican base?

Like, what are you living in some alternate? Fantasy [00:28:00] world, you would only push that for to win within a status hierarchy at the cost of the party, which means that you are an enemy of the party. Like you disgusting child like, like if you're not helping the party and again, this is different. If you're in like a European or Eastern European country where the politics are different, I'm talking about like, if you're in the U S or like you're in Germany in your, in your taking these sorts of positions, which are just hurting the party's ability to win and, and, and, and.

Get dominance so that we can fix the more existential issues that actually do affect our kid, our maybe survival as a cultural group. You know, in Europe, you know, you're dealing with crunch time now. Certain things don't matter at crunch time. That progressives want to get married sometimes and even some right leaning individuals.

Doesn't matter. to, to surviving crunch time when you are being displaced at like a record number. So I, I know there, which is why I don't think we're going to have the swing back. The other is, is I look at what people like Trump are doing and it's all just like, it's [00:29:00] not culture war stuff. It's not stuff Trump like really understands the 90 10 issues.

You know, actually

Simone Collins: I was listening to more commentary today that did point out that Unlike other conservative influencers, Trump has been very good at staying away from, for lack of a better way of putting it, the ick stuff. Like all the weird, you know, conspiracy theories or anti Semitic stuff.

Like he, he just tends to not engage with those things. Well, he's not

Malcolm Collins: anti Semitic. His daughter is Jewish.

Simone Collins: I know, but I mean. I think there are lots of people who have Yeah, but I think it's more than that. He actively understands

Malcolm Collins: the concept of a 90 10 issue. So, there was this great instance where he was giving a speech, and I really love this speech, and he's in right now a beef with the governess of Maine who is cutting off federal spending to them because they won't end trans participation in intramural sports for kids.

And he's [00:30:00] like, I love that they're doing it. He goes, don't, don't broadcast this out of the room. Obviously he's on like live television. He goes, keep this a secret between us, but I really hope she keeps this position to the next election cycle. It's going to do very well for us. No one supports this.

He goes, this is what they call a 90 10 issue. He goes, and I don't know who those 10 percent are. Oh, it's the same with Doge. You know, Doge is at the end of the day, like ending government bloat, very much a 90, 10 issue. The only area where they really crossed 90, 10 issues is stuff like the recent Zelinsky spat, but this is just one of those things where I think it really highlights for the people who were skeptical of stuff like USAID and sending money abroad.

And JD Vance did a good job of highlighting of you can spend trillions of dollars on somebody. And they will still not care at all the next year. If it looks like the money might be shut off.

There is no long term built support by spending this sort of money.

Simone Collins: Yeah. The money that we spent got us nothing, no credibility with them.

[00:31:00] Nothing.

Malcolm Collins: No credibility. Dolinsky, the head, didn't even care when the parties changed. Like, why would we continue doing that, you know? Unless it's just to wear down Russia, which we've already done. And then Europe is like, well, what if this leads to another war? And a lot of it's like, well, okay, you guys will handle it.

It's in Russia. They've got nothing. Like, what are you talking about? Like, they've been fighting Ukraine, which is a country like a third their size, with no weapons to start this, with ammunition from like The cold war right that they're still depleting. If they go to war with Europe. Yeah, I'm not really worried.

They're like, eventually they'll come for the US. That's what he told the, the, the, and, and, and Trump was like, don't tell us what we should be afraid of. He's like, you should be afraid. And, but Trump's right. How are they going to come for the, are they going to eat all of Europe? Like all of Europe is going to be Russian.

This isn't like Nazi Germany or something, like an industrial war house or [00:32:00] something. This is a country that is struggling against a, a developing country. Was a third their population.

Like, they have nukes. Like, what if they use nukes? Well, I don't think if they decide to attack Europe, they're going to start using nukes. If they decide to attack Europe, it's because they think that they can gain significant land in Europe, which I don't think, even they are stupid enough to believe. And then the use nukes thing.

I don't think the nukes work, and I'm being perfectly honest here.

Simone Collins: Wow, really? Russia

Malcolm Collins: knows the nukes don't. I wouldn't

Simone Collins: want to chance it.

Malcolm Collins: Just, you know. I wouldn't want to chance it, but I think that everyone knows that there is enough of a, like, come on, guys. And if they do chance it and if they don't work, Russia is being divided and Putin is going to live the rest of his life in a cellar.

You know, like, there's no reason for them to chance that particular, sorry, for people who wonder why I do not think the nukes work. If you look at things [00:33:00] like the troops transport and stuff like that, that they were going into Ukraine with, that they hadn't even been rotating the tires that they had all popped, then it turned out that like two thirds of the planes were like not working or like had been replaced with like dummy planes or completely gutted.

Or it turned out that like the oil had been siphoned from all of the, the troop transport. So they got like halfway to Kiev and ran out of fuel. Like, Okay, it happened in that place and it hadn't been caught. You don't think it happened with the, with the missiles? And they're like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

It's totally different. Like, Russia I do feel

Simone Collins: like there's more ongoing maintenance that needs to take place.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, and I'm like, you, you think they weren't checking this other stuff? And it was easier to check the other stuff than the missiles. Like the missiles, you need a higher level of expertise to make sure you're not being grifted on.

Simone Collins: Sadly, this is above my pay grade, but I, I guess, yeah. I mean, considering the track record. With a variety of other defense mechanisms and [00:34:00] resources.

Malcolm Collins: But there's a secondary thing that a lot of people aren't considering with the missiles. Okay. So if you're a patriot or whatever or you're like a normal person, right?

Like you might view it as unethical to grift or steal stuff from like, let's say, oil from a troop transport or parts from an airplane. But your average person with a sense of ethics would probably think it a moral imperative. To take parts from a nuclear missile because nobody would like

Simone Collins: not let it happen if someone tries to make it happen.

Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. I can see people justifying that to themselves in a way that I can't see with other things. So then there's this whole additional reason why the missiles would have decayed at a faster rate than all of the other stuff. Keep in mind that most of the stuff was made before any of us were born.

Just,

Simone Collins: like, keep that in mind. Gosh, okay. Well, when you put it that way, it doesn't

Malcolm Collins: And anyone from then until now could have [00:35:00] done this. Or inserted something into it that made it not work that other people might not notice. I'm just saying that there's like a lot of reasons to not really be afraid. And I guess

Simone Collins: the biggest reason is the kleptocracy problem that seems to be taking place.

That there's just enough motivation to take little parts of things.

Malcolm Collins: Let's put it this way, Putin doesn't have an Elon that he can put into like coked up goblin mode to go and check everything. If, if, if they had a doge, they could go and find out if everything works. They could go and actually root out their corruption in the way that the United States is doing.

Maybe, maybe Elon should go to Putin next and handle Russia. I, I actually would actually be kind of okay with like an efficient Russia and ending the kleptocracy there because I think it would do good for the world. Overall, you just made it slightly not slightly, but significantly like a modern economy instead of a kleptocratic economy.

Simone Collins: Yeah, I mean, there's, there's a lot of places that [00:36:00] it'd just be so nice if you could give them a really quick Elon Musk makeover, you know, just trim a bunch of things. And this is something that we see all the time with developing country too, even with infrastructure, where Because they didn't have various departments or functions for, you know, until very recently, they got developed much more efficiently and with better technology from day one, and it would just be, I feel like there should be some kind of sunset date or expiry date.

On organizational departments that just sort of forces you to remake it every decade. I don't know, every, however many years, or once you reach a certain number of staff where you were just, you have to redo it. It doesn't matter if it was working fine, you have to rebuild it and you're going to rebuild it better.

And maybe some people will be rehired. Maybe they won't, but it has to be done. No. Well, I do [00:37:00] think we're moving in the right direction. I feel very hopeful. And, and, oh yeah, pun intended, I guess, both right and correct direction. It's nice to see miscorrection taking place. I have my doubts about the EU just given, but between the fact that the European Union exists,

Malcolm Collins: This thing about the EU, the only way the EU survives, and I mean, survives at like a mathematical level, when we're talking about like fertility rates of different populations, immigrant population and everything like that is if they kick out large amounts of immigrants at this point.

And That's not going to happen

Simone Collins: though. I mean, they feel like they need them because of

Malcolm Collins: No, I think it might happen, but it's going to look horrifying when it starts happening. It's going to look like a form of far right that everyone was afraid of, but it's the only realistic solution. The left is basically forcing the horrors that are to come by flooding the country with people because they're going to eventually have to be removed.[00:38:00]

Simone Collins: I don't think there's a plan or even necessarily a capability for that.

Malcolm Collins: That is,

Simone Collins: in some cases, didn't you point out like in

Malcolm Collins: Germany? The AFD has been actively talking about this.

Simone Collins: Yeah, but in Germany, some huge proportion of the population is first or second generation immigrated

Malcolm Collins: after 1950.

Simone Collins: Yeah, so, I mean, what about all their kids?

What about their grandkids? I mean, at this point, it has been happening for so long. The AFD

Malcolm Collins: has talked about removing even German citizens that have not integrated into the country's culture.

Simone Collins: Oh, wow.

Malcolm Collins: That is what has to happen. It's the only real, if you have not integrated, if you want to save German culture, especially with this existing birth rate, the only way to do that is to remove higher fertility populations that do not share that culture, especially if they don't share it intergenerationally, and durably intergenerationally, like, I wouldn't say something like this in the U.

S., but in Germany, I don't know how else he survived.

Simone Collins: Yikes. And you're forgetting too, though, that [00:39:00] countries in Germany can't even really do things in isolation because they're part of the EU. Now, I mean, Germany has disproportionate power and weight within the EU, but I just feel like the bureaucratic morass that they've thrown upon themselves by.

Operating through the EU, there will not be the bandwidth to take the kind of unilateral action that is necessary to, to save themselves from the dynamics that have been put in place a long time ago. I just, I don't really see it working out as much as that saddens me. Like, I, I mean, there are ways, and I know there are like pockets of Europe that are moving in really good directions.

I just think maybe it'll become more balkanized, tinier little pockets. That will maybe ultimately reclaim the non functional pockets that sort of go to seed over time. But I don't know. Fingers crossed. I'm [00:40:00] just saying that the

Malcolm Collins: left is basically forcing an eventual, of some of these countries.

And that is absolutely horrifying that they're not thinking through because they're putting a population in a position where either they do that or are eventually erased just by the math. Why would you be stupid enough to force that in the long run? If you like, unless you were just playing some sort of like short term, like psychotic game.

Simone Collins: Yeah. Well, obviously they're not thinking along those lines. It's just not,

Malcolm Collins: well, these populations have their own culture. They have their own ways. Like some of them integrate and that's fine, but it's not the other one's fault that they're not integrating. It's not their fault that they maintain their culture in the face of alternate cultures.

Like, that's a good thing to have a durable culture, but I can understand why a native population would, would say, okay, you came here as refugees now get out. I don't care how [00:41:00] many generations you've been here, you, we would like to keep some aspect of our culture. Like, why is it their fault that they say, oh, I want to keep my culture?

Like, why is that a bad thing? Because they're European, they're German, whatever. Ugh, anyway.

Simone Collins: It's a mess. We all know where this is going.

Malcolm Collins: Alright. You know what I'm saying is, is, is, it's going in one of two directions. Either the eventual extinction of at least continental Europe as a cultural what I just mean is groups that have different cultural values are going to eventually become the dominant populations in these countries.

Yeah. Like, that's not a horrifying thing to me because I'm not from one of those cultural groups and I don't care about them. I don't particularly like German culture. I'm fine with that. But like, that is one possibility. Or the other possibility is Is that the, the groups in power now, like the groups out of power now gain power and they remove the populations that are different from them.[00:42:00]

Or the final possibility is they ghettoize the populations that are different from them, which isn't particularly better than the removing them situation. I'm just saying there like, aren't a lot, the more people you ship in, the worse the potential options get. For the existing population, especially if they are non integrating groups,

Simone Collins: I imagine that there are potential innovative solutions that could resolve the dynamic.

I mean, to your point, or you could say your, your broader families, historical, political point, you cannot have both open borders and generous social services. It could just be that at one point, you Cut it all off. The social services are cut off and that could solve the problem.

Malcolm Collins: I think that that would probably be the less bloody way.

And I should point out here that if anybody like watches this and like some lefty tries to say he's saying this should happen. That is 100 percent not what I am saying. I am saying these [00:43:00] are the various possibilities given the chessboard that the left has set up. I don't think that these possibilities are good.

I think that they are horrifying and totalitarian and they worry me as much as they should worry you, it's just sort of like, you know, you put a ball at the top of a hill and I'm like, Oh my God, that ball is going to roll down the hill the moment you let go of it. And you're like, ha ha, you think this ball should roll down the hill and crush the city below?

Like, no, I didn't say, I think that's a good thing. I'm worried about the city below. Stop putting the giant like boulder at the top of the hill. Yeah. Because if the supports break, the city below is crushed.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: All right. Love you to decimum.

Simone Collins: I love you too, Malcolm. You

Malcolm Collins: making me curry tonight?

Simone Collins: It's curry night.

I'm going to go down right now.

Malcolm Collins: Oh, I got you done early enough.

Simone Collins: Thank you.

Malcolm Collins: Bye.

Speaker 4: What do you want to say to Indy about growing up? Um, that I love, that um, [00:44:00] uh, I love her, That, um, uh, Indy, is, um, is, like, um, uh, our baby, that is right there. I love her, and I'm gonna, um, uh, help, and if mommy needs help, I'ma like, um, uh, I'ma like, answer, and, and, um, if he needs help, take it, cut off, and he out goes, HELP! HELP!

buddy. I appreciate that. You're the best. And he loves you.

Speaker 5: And I'm ready to know to Mrs. Donnelly that I love her. Aw. Huh. Yeah, there it is. Oh, it's upside down. Oh. Never mind that. Good

Speaker 4: job, friend.

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