FICC Focus Macro Matters: 2026 US Economic Drivers With CFB’s Shulyatyeva
Jan 8, 2026
Yelena Shulyatyeva, a Senior US economist at the Conference Board with over 20 years of experience, shares insightful predictions about the US economy. She expects a significant slowdown in consumer spending due to tariffs impacting inflation. Discussing the labor market, Yelena highlights hiring freezes and risks to jobs. She also examines the long-term productivity boost from AI, despite initial increases in inequality. The conversation covers potential future rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's independence amid evolving economic conditions.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Tariffs Will Slow Consumer Spending
- Tariffs are a delayed but meaningful drag on consumer spending and the 2026 economy.
- Conference Board expects a slowdown rather than a recession as pass-through raises prices and affordability falls.
Shelter And Services Inflation To Ease
- Shelter inflation is easing and will continue to subside into 2026, reducing a major CPI component.
- Services inflation excluding shelter should also soften as expensive goods squeeze discretionary spending.
Confidence Diverges From Official Data
- Consumer confidence shows a disconnect from government data, suggesting actual activity lies between the two.
- Conference Board expects a meaningful slowdown in 2026 despite current spending continuing for now.