The week in markets: the probability of a recession

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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In this episode, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, talks about recent comments by some voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that rates will need to stay high into 2024, the outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Philadelphia Fed’s survey of professional forecasters showing the probability of a recession over the next 12 months, at 43%, the conundrums Arthur Burns faced when he was chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1970 to 1978, the difficulties China is facing in adjusting its zero-Covid policy, and a very rare signal that suggests the Hong Kong stock market could be on the cusp of a bull market and more.