“The Intelligence Legacy of the Yom Kippur War” – with Uri Bar-Joseph
Oct 17, 2023
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Uri Bar-Joseph, an author and professor emeritus at Haifa University, discusses the intelligence failure of the Yom Kippur War. Topics include how Israel failed to predict the war, the role of Egyptian spy Ashraf Marwan, Israeli intelligence post-war, and Israeli leadership's accountability. They also talk about learning from mistakes, national trauma, and more.
The Yom Kippur War highlighted critical failures in Israeli intelligence, including flawed intelligence estimates and misinterpretation of available information.
The head of military intelligence, Eli Zaira, bears significant responsibility for the intelligence failure.
The Yom Kippur War had a lasting impact on Israel's intelligence community, leading to changes in structure and approach to intelligence analysis.
Deep dives
Background: Israeli intelligence and the Yom Kippur War
The Yom Kippur War, a conflict between Israel, Egypt, and Syria, is known for being one of Israel's most significant intelligence failures. Israeli intelligence agencies, including the military intelligence and the Mossad, had a range of collection methods at their disposal, including sigint and human sources. Information was available that suggested the possibility of an attack, but due to a flawed intelligence estimate, the Israeli leadership did not anticipate a full-scale war. Key factors leading to the intelligence failure include the belief that Egypt and Syria would not attack without specific weapons systems, the misuse of special means of collection, and the underestimation of the threat. The head of military intelligence, Eli Zaira, is primarily held responsible for the failure. His failure to operate critical collection systems and the misinterpretation of available information led to the surprise attack.
The Role of Ashraf Marwan as an Egyptian Spy
Ashraf Marwan, son-in-law of Egyptian President Nasser and close advisor to his successor Sadat, provided vital intelligence to Israel during this period. Marwan had access to high-level Egyptian decision-making and shared detailed information with Israeli intelligence agencies, including the Mossad. He supplied key documents, war plans, and information about the Egyptian military's intentions. However, his intelligence was not fully trusted or acted upon, in part due to a flawed intelligence estimate, which mistakenly believed that Egypt would not go to war without specific weapon systems. Marwan's true identity was later exposed, leading to speculation about his motives and the subsequent controversy surrounding his mysterious death in London.
Assessment of Responsibility: Eli Zaira and Flawed Intelligence Estimates
Eli Zaira, the head of military intelligence, bears significant responsibility for the intelligence failure. He failed to operate critical collection systems, believing that Egypt would not go to war without certain weapons, and underestimated the threat despite mounting evidence. The flawed intelligence estimate, which dismissed the possibility of a full-scale war, also contributed to the surprise attack. Other officers in military intelligence, including a senior analyst, were complicit in the failure. Golda Meir, the Prime Minister at the time, relied on the flawed analysis provided by military intelligence and is not primarily responsible for the intelligence failure.
Consequences and Legacy of the Yom Kippur War
The Yom Kippur War is regarded as a traumatic and significant event in Israeli history. It led to changes in Israel's intelligence community, including a shift in responsibility for national intelligence estimates from military intelligence to the Mossad. The failure to anticipate the war had a lasting impact on Israeli intelligence, leading to a shift from excessive optimism to excessive caution in subsequent assessments. The 50th anniversary of the war is being commemorated, reinforcing its status as a pivotal event in Israeli history.
Summary and Analyst Commentary
The Yom Kippur War exposed critical failures in Israeli intelligence, primarily due to flawed intelligence estimates and misinterpretation of available information. Despite having access to key sources and collection methods, the intelligence community failed to anticipate the scope and timing of the attack. The responsibility for the failure primarily lies with the head of military intelligence, Eli Zaira, who neglected critical collection systems and disseminated flawed analysis. The legacy of the war includes a changed intelligence structure and a lasting impact on Israel's approach to intelligence analysis.
Uri Bar-Joseph (LinkedIn) joins Andrew (Twitter; LinkedIn) to discuss the intelligence failure of the Yom Kippur War. Uri is an author and professor emeritus at Haifa University.
What You’ll Learn
Intelligence
How Israel failed to predict the Yom Kippur War
Egyptian spy Ashraf Marwan’s role in the War
How Israeli intelligence evolved post-War
Israeli leadership’s accountability for the failure
