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“The Intelligence Legacy of the Yom Kippur War” – with Uri Bar-Joseph
Oct 17, 2023
Uri Bar-Joseph, an author and professor emeritus at Haifa University, discusses the intelligence failure of the Yom Kippur War. Topics include how Israel failed to predict the war, the role of Egyptian spy Ashraf Marwan, Israeli intelligence post-war, and Israeli leadership's accountability. They also talk about learning from mistakes, national trauma, and more.
01:13:56
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Quick takeaways
- The Yom Kippur War highlighted critical failures in Israeli intelligence, including flawed intelligence estimates and misinterpretation of available information.
- The head of military intelligence, Eli Zaira, bears significant responsibility for the intelligence failure.
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Background: Israeli intelligence and the Yom Kippur War
The Yom Kippur War, a conflict between Israel, Egypt, and Syria, is known for being one of Israel's most significant intelligence failures. Israeli intelligence agencies, including the military intelligence and the Mossad, had a range of collection methods at their disposal, including sigint and human sources. Information was available that suggested the possibility of an attack, but due to a flawed intelligence estimate, the Israeli leadership did not anticipate a full-scale war. Key factors leading to the intelligence failure include the belief that Egypt and Syria would not attack without specific weapons systems, the misuse of special means of collection, and the underestimation of the threat. The head of military intelligence, Eli Zaira, is primarily held responsible for the failure. His failure to operate critical collection systems and the misinterpretation of available information led to the surprise attack.
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