ChinaTalk Setser on US-China Trade, Lessons from USTR, Economics of Great Powers, and Panda Diplomacy
Dec 12, 2023
Brad Setser, a Fellow at CFR and former USTR staffer, discusses critical topics surrounding US-China relations and trade. He breaks down China's growth trajectory and its implications for global power dynamics. Setser delves into the intricacies of debt negotiations involving countries like Zambia and Argentina, highlighting the significance of trade agreements. The conversation also touches on 'panda diplomacy' and the economic factors influencing China's domestic market, including pork prices and the balance of trade.
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GDP and National Power
- Comparing nominal GDPs might not accurately reflect national power dynamics between large economies like the US and China.
- Factors like manufacturing capacity and commodity import demand are also crucial.
Trade Policy Realities
- Brad Setser learned that trade data plays a surprisingly small role in US trade policy.
- The impact of trade policy on trade flows is often overstated.
TPP's Impact
- After Trump pulled out of the TPP, trade with TPP countries actually increased, not decreased.
- This was due to a strong US economy and the fact that US tariffs are generally low.