Limited partners have been increasing their target allocations to the private space due to the need for higher returns and the low interest rate environment.
Private markets, including private equity and real estate, have experienced a consistent rise in valuation multiples over the past decade driven by factors such as increasing investor interest, the search for higher returns, and new ways to get exposure like private equity in emerging markets and ESG funds.
Deep dives
Private markets fundraising trends
The private markets have experienced significant growth in fundraising over the past decade. Limited partners (LPs) have been increasing their target allocations to the private space due to the need for higher returns and the low interest rate environment. LPs, particularly large institutional investors, have been allocating more capital to private markets to meet their future liabilities. This growth has led to a substantial increase in total NAV dollars allocated to private equity, which has grown nine times over the last 20 years compared to a three times increase in the public equity market cap.
Impact of rising multiples on private markets
Private markets, including private equity and real estate, have experienced a consistent rise in valuation multiples over the past decade. This has been driven by factors such as increasing investor interest in private markets, the search for higher returns, and the availability of new ways to get exposure, including private equity in emerging markets, ESG funds, growth equity, and venture capital. Private markets have outperformed public markets, with every vintage year in private equity selling into a higher multiple environment. However, the impact of rising multiples has put pressure on sponsors to find alternative sources of return, such as earnings growth and leverage.
Dry powder and deal-making environment
The private markets have seen a significant increase in dry powder, which refers to capital raised by general partners (GPs) but not yet deployed. The amount of dry powder has grown rapidly, outpacing GDP growth. However, the deployment of this capital has not kept pace, resulting in a lower ratio of deal volume to dry powder. While there is pressure on GPs to do more deals, the availability of deals has not grown as quickly as the headline dry powder numbers suggest. Financing has become more challenging and expensive, leading to wider bid-ask spreads and a more difficult deal-making environment.
Future trends and opportunities in private markets
Future trends in private markets include a focus on sustainability and diversity and inclusion. GPs and LPs are increasingly incorporating sustainability factors into their investment processes and launching dedicated sustainability vehicles. The industry is also making efforts to increase diversity and representation, although there is still progress to be made. Looking ahead, fundraising may continue to face challenges due to the denominator effect and uncertainties in the market. However, there are opportunities for growth, including tapping into non-institutional capital and investing in areas like renewables and new energy. Private credit is also expected to be a key area of growth in the coming years.
We speak Brian Vickery and John Spivey, two authors of the 2023 McKinsey Global Private Markets Review. Brian and John join us to explore recent trends in private markets. They analyze why the markets have enjoyed strong tailwinds since the depths of the Global Financial Crisis and look at the origins of the recent slowdown. Will private markets continue to face headwinds? How did private market performance compare to public markets? That’s what we’re here to find out.