Talking Markets ‘Muni edition’ with Jon Mondillo (abrdn) & Kathleen McNamara (UBS CIO)
Apr 14, 2024
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Jon Mondillo from abrdn and Kathleen McNamara from UBS CIO discuss muni bond duration, sector preferences, and 2024 election implications. They explore high yield opportunities, rate management complexities, and potential threats to tax exemptions in the municipal bond market.
High-yield munis outperform investment-grade munis with strong fundamentals and attractive yields near 9%.
Caution advised on duration in municipal bond portfolios amidst potential rate cuts, favoring a barbell approach for volatility ahead.
Deep dives
State of the Municipal Bond Market
Looking at the municipal bond market performance, high-yield munis are outperforming investment-grade munis with attractive yields close to 9%. The strong fundamentals of high-yield munis are supported by a resilient economy and favorable technicals. Despite yields decreasing, high-yield munis remain appealing compared to investment-grade and corporate counterparts.
Duration and Portfolio Strategy
While rates are near peak levels, caution is advised on duration within municipal bond portfolios. A debated topic, the potential for rate cuts by the Fed may influence portfolio decisions, favoring a barbell approach to duration. Considering the volatility ahead, staying within three-year maturities and longer than seven-year maturities is recommended.
Sector Opportunities and Cautions
In the municipal bond market, opportunities lie in essential services sectors like healthcare, housing, and education, with specific emphasis on lower investment grade hospital systems, subsidized housing, and charter schools. Caution is advised in state general obligation funds due to budgetary pressures and transportation mass transit given the over-reliance on local and state appropriations.
Conclusion
Despite ongoing debates and cautious considerations, the municipal bond market presents opportunities, favorable credit views, and potential for strategic allocations between taxable and tax-exempt paper. Constructive sentiments towards high-yield munis, coupled with low likelihood of tax exemption threats, contribute to a positive outlook for the municipal bond market.
Kathleen and Jon discuss a wide range of topics, including considerations when it comes to muni duration, sector preferences (including tax-exempt), implications of the 2024 election, and much more. Featured is Jonathan Mondillo, Head of US Fixed Income with abrdn, and Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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