AI, Extreme Weather, and the LA Wildfires

8 snips

Jan 14, 2025

Guest

Colin McCormick

Guest

Alice Hill

Alice Hill, a climate expert and former Obama administration official, and Colin McCormick, a principal scientist focused on carbon removal, discuss the rising challenges of extreme weather, particularly in Southern California's wildfires. They delve into groundbreaking AI-powered weather forecasting models that outperform traditional predictions and emphasize the urgent need for these technologies to reach at-risk communities. The conversation also touches on how innovative strategies can drastically improve disaster preparedness and enhance public weather services.

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ANECDOTE

AI Predicted Hurricane Beryl's Path

Hurricane Beryl in July 2024 veered off the predicted path.
AI models, unlike conventional ones, correctly predicted its landfall in Texas.

INSIGHT

Trusting AI Predictions

AI's accuracy creates a dilemma for officials: trust new AI models or established ones?
This is especially challenging when AI predictions differ from conventional models.

INSIGHT

Government Resource Challenges in AI

Governments face resource challenges in AI expertise.
They need sufficient in-house expertise to collaborate with private AI developers.

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The year 2024 ended with a sobering milestone: it was officially the hottest year ever recorded. That pattern of extremes continues around the world, especially in Southern California, which is suffering from one of its worst disasters in history. First responders are battling lethal wildfires that have consumed more than 12,000 buildings and homes, and forced more than 100,000 people to evacuate.

But beyond these headlines about rising temperatures and intensifying disasters lies a critical question: How can we better predict and prepare for extreme weather events in a warming world?

Recent breakthroughs in AI-powered weather forecasting have produced new models that not only match but sometimes outperform traditional prediction systems. These advances couldn't come at a more crucial time – in 2023 alone, the US suffered $95 billion in damages from 28 separate extreme weather events.

So, how do we ensure these powerful new tools reach the communities that need them most? How can advances in weather forecasting enhance energy resiliency? And what role should public agencies play as private companies push the boundaries of prediction technology?

This week host Bill Loveless talks with Alice Hill and Colin McCormick about AI in weather forecasting. Together, they authored a chapter on extreme weather response in the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum’s report Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap.

Alice is the David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. She previously served as special assistant to President Obama and senior director for resilience policy on the National Security Council.

Colin is a principal scientist at Carbon Direct, where he provides expertise across carbon removal methods and industrial decarbonization. He previously served as senior advisor for R&D at the US Department of Energy. He is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service.