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Global Commodities: The art of keeping up with yesterday and avoiding tomorrow
Sep 6, 2024
Natasha Kaneva, the Head of Global Commodities Research, dives into the intricacies of the oil market. She discusses the significant 2 million barrels per day inventory draw since June, highlighting the lowest stock levels since 2017. Despite this, she reveals that 2025 forecasts are softer, prompting a reassessment of oil pricing, currently thought to be undervalued by $10. With OPEC+ dynamics and economic influences at play, Natasha provides insight on how these factors shape commodity interconnectivity and future market expectations.
13:52
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Quick takeaways
- Current global oil inventories are significantly low, yet predictions for 2024 oil prices have been adjusted downward due to market conditions.
- Despite economic uncertainties, oil demand remains resilient, particularly driven by stable U.S. gasoline consumption and a 3% GDP growth.
Deep dives
Oil Price Declines and Future Projections
Oil prices have seen a significant sell-off, with Brent crude previously peaking at $90 in April but later experiencing a downturn due to several factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC's planned output increases. The forecast for oil prices has been revised, with the anticipated average for 2024 now adjusted downward from $83 to $82, and a stable estimate of $75 for 2025. This downturn is not isolated to oil; other commodities, including copper and natural gas, have also seen price declines, suggesting broader macroeconomic challenges. Despite these changes, the outlook suggests that oil remains attractively valued, reflecting a discrepancy between current pricing and recent peaks, which may be influenced by market anticipations of oversupply in the future.
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