In Focus by The Hindu What do India's declining fertility rates mean for the future?
Sep 20, 2025
Sonalde Desai, a demography expert and Professor at NCAER, delves into India's declining fertility rates, which have recently dipped to 1.9. She highlights significant rural trends reaching replacement levels and the stark regional disparities across the country. Desai discusses the implications of an aging population, the effects of economic changes on family structures, and the challenges of migration and infertility. Ultimately, she explores how these shifts could shape India's future demographics and policy responses.
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Population Momentum Delays Stabilization
- India's population will likely keep growing for about 25 years because population momentum from many young people creates more children.
- If TFR stays near 1.9–2.0 long term, population will stabilize; much lower TFR would lead to eventual decline.
Rural Fertility Has Caught Up
- Rural fertility has reached replacement partly because education, aspirations and lower infant mortality rose in rural areas.
- These social transformations reduced the need for extra children as insurance against child mortality.
States Are Converging On Lower Fertility
- All states are experiencing fertility decline, though timing differs: northern states started later but are converging.
- Expect regional disparities to fade slowly as states move toward similar fertility levels over time.