The HC Commodities Podcast
Where are Oil Prices Headed? With Aldo Spanjer
Sep 3, 2024
Aldo Spanjer, a senior commodity strategist with deep insights into oil market dynamics, dives into the future of oil prices. He reviews key events since COVID and predicts supply-demand shifts leading into 2025. The discussion covers OPEC’s potential decisions, which could spark a new price war, and the implications of geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran. Aldo also highlights the evolving energy landscape, focusing on jet fuel's crucial role amidst the challenges of alternative fuels and changing demands.
45:24
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Quick takeaways
- The oil market is heavily influenced by the interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical tensions, especially concerning OPEC's production decisions.
- Weak demand signals from major markets like China have created uncertainty, necessitating a rebound for oil prices to stabilize in the coming years.
Deep dives
Fundamental Drivers of the Oil Market
The oil market is driven by three chief components: supply, demand, and refining capabilities. Major suppliers include the US and Middle Eastern countries, particularly in the context of OPEC's influence on global prices. Notably, the demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region, especially from China and India, has significantly affected market dynamics. Furthermore, refining contributes to the market complexity, as the type of crude oil available can impact the quality of refined products; for instance, European refineries adjusting to a lighter crude from the US due to sanctions on Russian imports illustrates this interplay.
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